A 24-team AFC Asian Cup. India won't be in it. Let that sink in.
While letting it sink in, let it also be known that this isn't a shock anymore. It's a result of a national team that has been sinking for a couple of years. India haven't won a competitive qualifying fixture since November 2023, the start of this campaign.
In the second round joint AFC Asian Cup-FIFA World Cup qualifiers, India were drawn against Qatar, Kuwait and Afghanistan. The top two from the group went through to the third round of World Cup qualifying, and with that came an automatic Asian Cup qualification spot. So, when India won 1-0 in Kuwait in the first match of that group stage in November 2023, they would've been forgiven for thinking they'd passed their biggest test on their way to that third round of World Cup qualification.
Since then, three managers have been in charge across nine qualification games in two different stages against six different teams. India have won none of those games. This is the story of how India's campaign unravelled and ended in failure.
November 21, 2023: The Qatar free hit
You know how you write off some games even before the campaign has begun? This was the first of two such games for India. They eventually only lost 3-0, but it was a game that could've been whatever Qatar (and specifically Akram Afif) wanted it to be. As far as the group was concerned, and it was a loss that eventually should've done no harm. Qatar would go on to win every game in the group bar one.
March 2024: The Afghan nightmares
The beginning of the slide. Afghanistan were the worst-ranked side in the group. India had to play them twice in the space of five days while Kuwait played Qatar twice in that same period. If India did their job, they would make it to the next stage of World Cup qualification. Instead, it was a beginning of a nightmare. In Saudi for their away game, India spurned chance after chance, and were lucky that Afghanistan did the same as well, as they escaped with a 0-0 draw.
They didn't have the same luck five days later in Guwahati, as Sunil Chhetri's first-half goal was cancelled out by two Afghan goals in the second.
One point from two games against the worst team in the group -- a side against whom India would've expected to take six. As we know now, this was truly the beginning of the freefall.
June 2024: A sombre Chhetri farewell, and controversy in Qatar
It was supposed to be the last international match of Sunil Chhetri. He wanted to leave on a high, beating Kuwait in Kolkata. As it turned out, the team put in a mediocre display in a 0-0 draw, once again their opponents had the better chances to win the game.
So that left India with the most unenviable task in the group: to get a result in Qatar to stay alive. They were thrown a lifeline as Qatar rested all their regulars and played a bunch of their U23s. It began well too, with Lallianzuala Chhangte giving India the lead. But Qatar equalised after the referee failed to spot the ball going out of play, and then things unravelled.
No third round of World Cup qualification, and another group to get through, where only the winner would qualify for the Asian Cup. As it turned out, this would be the endgame for Igor Stimac. He'd lost his job, amid a bitter struggle with the AIFF over his compensation, and in came Manolo Marquez, with plenty of hope placed on his shoulders.
March 2025: Held by Bangladesh
If you had to start as you mean to go on, then in hindsight, it can be said that India absolutely started as they went on in this group. They drew 0-0 against Bangladesh, but it could've easily been a loss.
Vishal Kaith was ragged in goal, having been preferred to Gurpreet Singh Sandhu. Chhetri was back from retirement too, coaxed into by Marquez, but it was Bangladesh's wide players who ran India's defenders around. They just didn't have the quality to finish off their chances. They didn't even need Hamza Choudhury to have a particularly good game in the midfield.
The alarm bells shouldn't just have been ringing then, they should've been blaring.
June 2025: Adios, Manolo
If that draw against Bangladesh was concerning, the loss to Hong Kong in June screamed crisis. They missed a few chances on that day, notably Ashique Kuruniyan, and then conceded through a last-minute penalty that Kaith gave away by punching an attacker's head instead of the ball. India went on to lose 1-0.
Soon, India would also learn of the suspension of the ISL as well, and the light at the end of the tunnel just didn't seem to be forthcoming. This would also be Marquez's last game in charge of an India, an ill-fated year where he bit off more than he could chew, and the national team suffered in the process.
October 2025: Final nail in the coffin
Khalid Jamil came in to replace Marquez, and some optimism was stirred up by an encouraging CAFA Nations Cup campaign in September. The task in the Asian Cup qualifiers was massive though. To ensure they kept up the pressure on Hong Kong, India would need to win both games against Singapore.
However, India were passive and eventually lucky to draw 1-1 in Singapore, and then when they were aggressive in attack, they showed frailties in defence to eventually lose 2-1 to them in Goa.
That means India cannot top this group anymore, and they won't be in 2027's continental showpiece event. It's official now, India aren't one of Asia's 24 best teams. It must hurt those that matter and it must bring change.