The defending champion Boston Celtics emerge from the All-Star break with a league-leading 44-11 record, and resume their Western swing on Thursday night in Utah. However, the Celtics are a differently constructed team than the one that won the NBA Championship last June.
The Celtics have chosen to go with Tony Allen at small forward, Leon Powe and Glenn Davis as the backup forwards and without a true backup point guard. They are also without veterans James Posey, PJ Brown and Sam Cassell from last year's roster. That may all change by Thursday's trade deadline, but even so, the Celtics appear to be a more vulnerable team this postseason.
Let's take a look at the keys to Boston's dominance and the keys to beating such a strong team in a seven-game series.
1. System Play
In order to beat the Celtics you must have offensive and defensive systems. The offense has to be highly organized, have patience and great shot selection. It must move the ball side to side -- Boston's schemes crush opponents that keep the ball on the strong side and do not move.
On defense you must account for Kevin Garnett's post-ups, Ray Allen's catch-and-shoot plays and Paul Pierce's isolations. Each of these players tax their opponent's ability to concentrate and stay within their defensive principles over and over again. Teams that do not have a tough and disciplined mindset will get beat.
2. The Point Guard Position
Rajon Rondo has become one of the most dangerous point guards in the NBA, creating havoc on the court with his speed and athleticism. Rondo is a tremendous all around guard who can defend, rebound and push the ball in transition. A playoff opponent must have a point guard who is quick enough to contain Rondo off dribble penetration, keep him off the glass and be able to attack him defensively while creating foul problems on the other end.
Beyond Rondo the Celtics are extremely vulnerable at point guard. They need to rest Rondo but don't have anyone that can run the second unit and provide offensive firepower. If Rondo gets hurt, the Celtics would be in a very precarious position.
3. The Paul Pierce Matchup
If you do not have someone that can defend Paul Pierce you will lose to the Celtics. While he is not the best ball handler or passer and does not dazzle you with his athleticism, he is a born scorer and one of the most difficult players in the NBA to defend. If Pierce catches the ball anywhere near the foul line or top of the key he has his opponent at his mercy. He will jab, get his defender off balance and either rise up for his jumper or drive it to the rim.
The Celtics love to utilize the small pick and roll with Rondo and Pierce, especially late in games. They run this to create a switch by the defenders, thus getting a much smaller opponent on Pierce. When the opposition switches, Pierce just salivates at his height differential and torches the mismatch. During a seven-game series, opponents must be prepared for this pick and roll strategy and devise a game plan in order to stop this play. One solution is to duck under the pick and roll, if Pierce sets it, and dare Rondo to shoot. If Rondo sets it, trap Pierce hard and get it out of his hands.
4. Where is James Posey?
Last year the best lineup for the Celtics, the one they used down the stretch, was Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Posey and Garnett. Posey is an excellent defender who can guard multiple positions. He allowed them to go with a smaller lineup and really pressure opponents. On offense, he spaced the floor for Pierce and Garnett, and made numerous perimeter shots for the Celtics during their playoff run.
The Celtics had hoped that Tony Allen could be Posey's replacement, but the reality is that he is not. Allen is an athletic wing who can defend and attack the rim, but he is not the consummate role player Posey was. He does not have the composure, savvy and big time stroke. He does not help space the floor as well, does not have the on-court presence and cannot knock down the deep perimeter shots.
5. The P.J. Brown Factor
P.J. Brown only played 18 regular season games for the Celtics and then 25 playoff games. However, his jump shot with the clock winding down against the Cavaliers may have been the difference in the Celtics advancing out of the second round. Brown's minutes increased each series, as he was the Celtics first sub off the bench at the power forward/center position.
With Brown's retirement the Celtics decided to allow their younger players, Leon Powe and Glenn Davis, to fill that role. Because of the toughness and energy they bring to the court, Powe and Davis have been suitable replacements, however they do not provide the veteran leadership, knowledge and playoff savvy that Brown did. When games get tight, I am not sure these two can be relied on to get the job done consistently. This leaves the Celtics vulnerable if Garnett or Perkins get injured or encounter foul problems during a particular game.
Considering all of those factors, there are only a handful of teams that even have a slim chance of dethroning the C's. Cleveland and Orlando (if healthy) and L.A., San Antonio, and Utah (if healthy) in the West have a chance to beat Boston because they have the talent and depth to deal with a long playoff run and then have the coaching, and offensive and defensive systems to handle the Celtics. But I still believe that the Celtics will be hoisting their 18th Championship banner in the rafters come June.
John Carroll, a former coach for the Boston Celtics and Duquesne University, is a basketball analyst for Scouts Inc.