Wallowing. That's probably the best word to describe the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 14. With a 27-24-2 record, they looked nothing like the team that had surged to the Stanley Cup finals the previous season, largely because, until that day, they lacked one of the biggest pieces in their championship puzzle: Sergei Gonchar.
As much as the young team missed his leadership and poise on the ice, it might have missed his point production even more.
Let's turn back the clock. In his third game after returning from a shoulder injury, Gonchar blasted home his first goal of the season, a slap shot that beat the Montreal Canadiens 5-4. And so the surge began.
With its top blueliner back in action, the Penguins reeled off an 18-3-3 record to close the regular season. It was a drastic change for Pittsburgh, one borne out by the Pens' goal production before and after Gonchar's return.
Start with the power play. Sure, the Penguins had playmaking maestro Sidney Crosby and super sniper Evgeni Malkin. But even with those point-per-game giants, on Feb. 14, the Pittsburgh power play was scuffling to the tune of 16.5 percent, converting just 38 of 231 power-play opportunities to start the season. That stretch included a Sahara Desert-caliber drought from Dec. 23 to Jan. 5 in which the Pens were 0-for-32.
After Gonchar's return, the Penguins converted 18.6 percent of power plays, with 13 of the defenseman's 18 regular-season points coming with the man advantage. Even though Gonchar played just 25 games during the regular season, those 13 power-play points were the most by a Penguins defenseman, illustrating exactly how much the team struggled to replace him.
With Gonchar out from day one this season, the Penguins filled his lineup spot with defenseman Alex Goligoski, who contributed 20 points in 45 games during the regular season. That's not a bad performance, and it ranked the 23-year-old American from the University of Minnesota among the NHL's top 60 defensemen in points per game. But compare that to what the Pens lost in Gonchar.
Goligoski contributed on 20 of the 167 goals scored (either directly or through an assist) while Gonchar was ailing, meaning he was involved in about 12 percent of the Pens' goals. When healthy in 2007-08, Gonchar contributed on 65 of the Pens' 240 regular-season goals, good for 27.1 percent. The Russian D-man wasn't quite that good after returning this season, contributing on 19.4 percent of Pittsburgh's 93 goals from Feb. 14 onward, but it's still a big improvement over Goligoski.
Those numbers are not directly indicative of player value -- when Goligoski stepped in, he claimed Gonchar's spot in the lineup, not necessarily his role as the team's top playmaking defenseman -- but they give you an idea of how badly the Pens missed him.
A cleaner picture is provided by Tom Awad's GVT (goals versus threshold) stat. For a detailed definition, you can read on here, but in brief, GVT compiles a variety of both offensive and defensive factors to determine a player's value in terms of goals.
For the season, Gonchar and Goligoski posted similar GVT scores (5.4 for Gonchar in 25 games compared to 4.6 for Goligoski in 45 games), but those scores are not weighted by games played. If you stretch those scores across an entire season, which we've done thanks to a little help from Awad, Gonchar projects a GVT of around 16, while Goligoski comes closer to a seven or eight, meaning the difference between the two is about eight goals per full season.
Furthermore, Pittsburgh suffered from the absence of Gonchar's role as much as anything else. Puck-moving defensemen are invaluable in the new NHL, particularly in the playoffs. As Robert Vollman illustrated, post-lockout success in the Stanley Cup playoffs correlates to the number of puck-moving defensemen -- defined as D-men averaging .45 points per game or more -- on a roster. The more you have, the better your chances of advancing. Teams with no such players have won just one playoff series since the lockout, while teams with three or more have reached the conference finals 37.5 percent of the time. Gonchar's return gave Pittsburgh two such players (Kris Letang also averages .45 PPG) and a much better chance of advancing.
If you want an alternative link between skilled point men and playoff success, consider this nugget provided by ESPN Stats & Information's Next Level goal tracking. The Penguins have averaged .55 goals per game from the point, the second-best total in the playoffs and almost one-quarter of a goal per game better than the next closest team, the Carolina Hurricanes. The only team with a higher average? The Detroit Red Wings at .74, a figure that accounts for 20.9 percent of their playoff goals. Funny how both find themselves in the finals.
Thanks to Gonchar's winning goal in Game 3, the Penguins have a chance to climb back in the series and sip from Lord Stanley's Cup. Without Gonchar's production in the lineup, the Penguins likely would have been goners a long time ago.
Mike Hume is a researcher for ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine.