Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SATURDAY
1. Kazmir tries to regroup
Scott Kazmir was admittedly not himself in his most recent outing, when he allowed four home runs and exited after just three innings of work in Monday's 13-5 loss to the Red Sox. "I just didn't feel like that was me out there," the 24-year-old left-hander said. In giving up nine earned runs, Kazmir was erratic with his fastball and his changeup. Today, he'll take on a Minnesota Twins team that is fighting hard for a playoff spot.
Kazmir
Kazmir appeared to unravel from the start of Monday's contest. Of the 23 pitches he threw in the first inning, only 10 were strikes. Boston hitters took just seven swings in that inning and ended up with four runs. He made 21 pitches while behind in the count and only 10 were strikes; this 48 percent strike rate while behind paled in comparison to his usual 65 percent rate.
The Rays' lefty relies heavily on a high-voltage heater with which he has success both up and down in the zone. On Monday, only 57 percent of Kazmir's fastballs went for strikes (he's averaged 67 percent this season). Only three of his 53 fastballs were strikes at the knees.
Boston's right-handers did most of the damage. They were fortunate not to have to deal with Kazmir's changeup, his primary off-speed pitch to righties. Kazmir threw only two changeups for strikes on the night, one of which was taken deep by Mike Lowell.
One thing to pay attention to as Kazmir faces the Twins for the first time this season is how he'll operate against their same-side hitters. Lefties are just 1-for-24 against Kaz's fastball when he keeps it down in the zone, which he does more often to lefties than to righties. Meanwhile, the Twins have five left-handed hitters who are either batting over .340 or slugging over .500 against low heat:
Martinez
2. Pedro's fastball not the same
Pedro Martinez is having a tough season and a tough month, with a 9.00 ERA in two September starts. Opponents are clobbering Pedro's fastball this season to the tune of a .353 batting average. They hit just .227 against Martinez's heater from 2004 to 2007.
That hasn't stopped Pedro from throwing fastballs. In fact, he has tossed slightly more of them this season than he did when it was a more effective pitch.
His fastball velocity is down only slightly from last season, but the same trends that crept up a year ago are evident in 2008. He has not been able to use the heater effectively unless it is located away:
Hitters are making contact more often. They have put 45 percent of swung-on inside fastballs in play this season, compared to 33 percent in scouted at-bats from 2004 to 2007.
Watch to see if Martinez can beat the Braves by keeping his fastball on the outer third of the plate. Atlanta has hit .276 off inside fastballs -- third-best in the league.
Delcarmen
Masterson
3. Masterson, Delcarmen solidify 'pen for Sox
With a high-powered offense (second in the AL in runs) and a capable rotation (fourth in the AL in starters' ERA), the Red Sox figure to once again pose a formidable challenge for any team in the playoffs. However, one component that has experienced some rough patches in 2008 is the bullpen; the Red Sox rank a middling sixth in the AL in bullpen ERA.
Two right-handers have stepped up to fill the void in front of Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima. Justin Masterson (a second-round pick out of San Diego State in 2006) and Manny Delcarmen (a second-round pick out of a Boston high school in 2000) have provided the Red Sox with solid middle- and late-inning relief over the past few months. Since converting to relief full-time on July 23, Masterson has held hitters from both sides of the plate in check, while continuing to generate ground balls by the bushel (all stats through Thursday):
Delcarmen has also been at his best lately, holding opponents to a paltry .176 well-hit average overall since the All-Star break. His first-half ERA was 4.54; since the break it's 2.10. Delcarmen has improved his performance by bearing down when behind in the count and limiting the number of baserunners that score:
Delcarmen has also been very efficient, having retired the side in order in 58 percent of his complete innings pitched since the All-Star break, compared to 31 percent before.