The Arizona Cardinals selected N.C. State SS Adrian Wilson in the third round in 2001, and Wilson has paid big dividends. He has started 116 games, and last year he earned his third trip to the Pro Bowl. He has also become just the 10th player in NFL history to record 20 career sacks and 20 career interceptions.
So why did Wilson fall to the third round? He played the run well in college and flashed big-play ability, but he was inconsistent. At 225 pound there was some concern about his ability to hold up in coverage. Wilson's decision to skip his senior year instead of sharpening his technique might also have hurt him.
Here are three safeties from the 2010 draft class who fit the same mold as Wilson (220-plus pounds), a breakdown of their skill sets and where each could be drafted.
Taylor Mays, USC; Scouts Inc. grade: 89 -- Mays could turn into one of the best safeties in the league or become just another cautionary tale against overvaluing natural ability.
On one hand, it's impossible to ignore Mays' awesome upside. He covers enough ground in coverage to play a centerfielder-type role in the middle of the field, and at a solid 231 pounds he's more than capable of playing close to the line of scrimmage in run support. Then there are the hits. Mays is a devastating striker who can stop ball carriers in their tracks and make receivers think twice about going over the middle.
On the other hand, Mays' instincts and more specifically his angles to the ball are reasons for concern. He gets caught out of position too often to be considered a reliable last line of defense, and don't be fooled by his interception in the Senior Bowl. Mays frequently got caught playing the man rather than the ball during the practice week, and that problem shows up during film study as well. Because of these issues Mays has fallen to the second round.
Chad Jones, LSU; Grade: 85 -- Not only did Jones elect to enter the draft as an underclassmen, but he spent his springs at LSU playing baseball rather than taking part in football practice. That obviously raises concerns about his polish as a football player, but we were impressed with what we saw on film.
The 231-pound Jones shows above-average instincts, and sound positioning helps mask his lack of elite closing speed and hip fluidity. While he could shed blocks more quickly Jones has the upper-body strength to improve in this area and he's certainly big enough to line up in the box. In addition, his ball skills are better than the numbers (five career interceptions) suggest because he has long arms and flashes the ability to high-point the ball. Overall he grades out as a mid-second-round pick.
Kam Chancellor, Virginia Tech; Grade: 70 -- Chancellor is a liability in man coverage at times because he sometimes lets receivers get behind him and lacks the burst to recover when they do. His footwork is also inconsistent, and he allows too much separation coming out of breaks. In fact, because Chancellor weighed in at 232 pounds at the East-West Shrine Game, there has been some debate as to whether he is a better fit at linebacker.
However, his strong performance during Shrine week and the upside he flashes on film have effectively ended that debate for now. Chancellor looked comfortable opening his hips and showed above-average closing speed for his size. He's clearly got enough range to play safety in the NFL, and while he could take better pursuit angles at times, there's a lot to like about the way he plays the run. Chancellor could end up being a good value in the late-third or early-fourth round.