When the Toronto Blue Jays signed Alex Gonzalez, it seemed a fait accompli that Marco Scutaro would take his place in Boston, although at a significant cost to the Red Sox financially and in the draft, as Scutaro was a Type-A free agent and the Blue Jays now have a claim on the Red Sox's first-round pick. (That could become a second-round pick if the Red Sox sign another Type-A free agent.) Scutaro is a significant upgrade over Gonzalez because at the plate they couldn't be more different; Gonzalez is an unapologetic hacker while Scutaro is a patient hitter who rarely chases anything out of the zone. Even if Scutaro's 2009 was -- as it appears -- a fluke year at the plate, his offensive advantage over Gonzalez well outweighs the small defensive disadvantage, leaving the Sox better off and with a player who, with some regression, will still represent a good value for his salary.
Scutaro did play the second half of the year with plantar fasciitis that required surgery when the tendon finally tore in September, and it's possible that the injury affected him defensively; he played better with more range in the field in 2008 and the first half of 2009. He also spent time in Toronto working with coach Brian Butterfield, one of the best infield coaches in the game and the man who turned Orlando Hudson and Aaron Hill into Gold Glove winners (deserving ones) at second base. On the other hand, Scutaro is 34 and has never had great speed, so there's reason to fear that age and loss of athleticism will start to bring his defense down over the life of the contract.
The worst part of the deal for the Red Sox is the loss of the first-round pick. Yes, the Red Sox got -- or stole, if you're a bitter Met fan -- a first-round pick for Billy Wagner, but that pick was theirs whether or not they signed Scutaro or another Type-A free agent. Few teams have been as productive in the draft as the Red Sox have been over the past five years under recently-departed scouting director Jason McLeod, so the value of a first-round pick to Boston should be quite high, knowing how well they've converted those picks into assets.
The loser here appears to be Jed Lowrie, whose wrist injury wiped out a 2009 season in which he was expected to contend for the starting shortstop job. Given the long recovery time from serious wrist problems -- such players often need a full year after the injury has healed to regain all their strength in that joint -- it does make sense for Boston to avoid relying on Lowrie for anything in 2010, but I wonder if this means he's become trade bait for a big arm or bat.