One of the most difficult areas for a scout to grade is intangibles. Character, leadership and other traits of that nature can impact a player's professional prospects, but a scout's main job is to determine how much weight to place on those attributes.
This quandary is doubly tough when it comes to someone like Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow. His speech after the Ole Miss loss in 2008 already has taken its rightful place alongside Knute Rockne's famous 1928 oratory at halftime of the Notre Dame versus Army game as one of the greatest rallying cries in college football history.
As impressive as Tebow's leadership skills are, they have made him something of a polarizing figure. Tebow's most ardent supporters include Tony Dungy, who recently said he would take Tebow with a top-10 draft pick if he were running a team. His detractors, including many scouts, are of the mindset that Tebow is vastly overrated and should go as a third- or fourth-round pick.
The Draft Lab's take on intangibles stems from statistician Bill James' comments on the subject throughout the years. Leadership is valuable, but the best leaders on a team are typically the best players. Being a good person carries some weight in the NFL, but players by and large want to follow the lead of top performers. That means Tebow's leadership is valuable only if he is able to land a starting job.
So what do the scouting and metric eyes say about Tebow's readiness to play in the NFL? They paint a mixed story.
Let's start with the numbers. Here are Tebow's pass metrics by route depth for the 10 games I reviewed (versus Tennessee, at Kentucky, at LSU, versus Arkansas, at Mississippi State, versus Georgia, versus Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, versus Florida State, versus Alabama in the SEC title game):
The Draft Lab takes the tack that a top-level draft prospect should be able to post metric totals at the collegiate level that are as good as -- or preferably better than -- what the top professional players post. An 8.5 yards per attempt mark would be an elite showing in the NFL, so this area is in his favor.
Another valuable quarterback metric set is vertical passing, which is passes thrown 11 yards or longer downfield. In that category, Tebow is 32-for-62 for 881 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. His yards per attempt is 14.2.
Anything more than 10 yards is considered solid in the pros, and a 14.2 rating would rank at or near the top of the league in a typical season.
As strong as the YPA total is, this metric isn't entirely in Tebow's favor because of the lack of pass volume. He averaged only six vertical passes per game; if that rate were applied to a 16-game NFL season, it would equal only 96 pass attempts. To put that into perspective, consider that even the vertically pass-challenged Buffalo Bills teams of the past few years made it into triple-digit territory here.
That isn't the only reason to think that Tebow's vertical game might not be all the numbers say it is cracked up to be. For example, his totals on individual vertical routes were a mixed bag. He was 4-for-16 on go routes, but two of those completions came via blown coverages. Those don't happen anywhere nearly as often in the pros as they do in college, and a 2-for-14 non-blown-coverage showing on that route type simply wouldn't cut it at the next level.
Tebow also fared very poorly in the bad-decision metric. This metric gauges how many times a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (dropped interception, fumble that his team recovers, etc.). Tebow's 3.4 percent rate here isn't quite in Jay Cutler territory, but it would rank near the bottom of the league in most seasons.
Even if the numbers overall argue in Tebow's favor, the scouting eye notes argue almost completely against him. The negatives here include:
1. Tebow has a really elongated throwing motion that hasn't improved even with extensive coaching.
2. He tends to lock onto receivers.
3. He usually doesn't look off the safety.
4. He doesn't read blitzes or other pass-rushing tricks very well.
5. The step forward he takes on play-action fakes is something he almost certainly will not be able to do in the NFL.
6. He is very uncomfortable working in a pocket environment.
Any one of these on its own is a significant weakness, but six are simply too much for anyone to overcome in a single offseason. Unless a team is willing to change its offense to fit his current skill set (and risk losing him to injury with the heavy dose of running that would entail), it is unrealistic to expect him to be a significant contributor immediately. He has the talent to learn how to be a pocket passer, but it would take a Tony Romo-like apprentice period for this to happen.
The Football Scientist lab result: The most apt comparison for Tebow is the Michael Vick of a few years ago. They have three things in common:
1. Superior physical skills.
2. Some really bad passing habits.
3. Huge PR value.
Unfortunately for Tebow, he lacks Vick's speed, and that is what allowed Vick to succeed in the NFL despite his lack of pocket-passer development.
Tebow's charisma and ticket-selling abilities may cause some team to draft him higher than his current skill set says he should be taken. Take that out of the equation, and he is a third- or fourth-round pick and quarterback project. If he goes any higher than that, his selection will be worthy of the TFS overhyped label.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His Countdown Daily by IBM weekly video matchups can be found every Tuesday here. He also can be found on Twitter (@kcjoynertfs) and at his Web site.