For the first time in years the All Blacks look vulnerable.
They've lost two Tests in three, suffered a record defeat to the Springboks in Wellington and lost for the first time in Argentina. They conceded the most points in a second half last week and have lost six from 21 Tests under Scott Robertson.
Their usually impressive set piece was picked apart, with their lineout and scrum blown to pieces by a dominant Springboks. They missed an astounding 46 tackles while their attack looked disjointed with All Blacks centurion Mils Muliaina commenting the team "almost gave up" in the final 20 minutes that saw them concede four tries.
So with the Wallabies on the rise, confidence building, and a belief they have a genuine chance of upsetting the All Blacks at fortress Eden Park, it's baffling that Joe Schmidt has sent his most experienced playmaker packing to the UK with the Rugby Championship in the balance.
Cast into the Test wilderness for the past three years, James O'Connor has proven himself an important cog in the Wallabies line-up since his return to the group through the British & Irish Lions series and the opening four RC Tests which saw the Wallabies end a 62-year drought at Ellis Park, a close defeat in Cape Town, and a post-siren victory over the Pumas in Townsville.
He hasn't been perfect, but he's been exactly what the Wallabies have needed after they were forced to find a suitable substitute for the injured Noah Lolesio, who has been ruled out for the season with a neck injury. While Tom Lynagh did a valiant job taking up the reins during the Lions series, his inexperience was exposed, particularly in his latest outing against the Pumas in Townsville.
Meanwhile, O'Connor's return to the gold set up has brought calm to a group desperate for experience and stability in a developing backline that currently features three players with just 30 caps between them.
The loss of first choice fullback Tom Wright has also added headaches for Schmidt who has leaned on Andrew Kellaway to fill in the gaps over the last fortnight in a backline still experiencing teething issues. While Nic White's official retirement means yet more changes with Jake Gordon expected to return with little game time in his legs since July.
While Schmidt's youth first policy is imperative for the future of the game, with a home World Cup on the horizon, he must be flexible to the demands currently imposed on his squad.
Without O'Connor the side features three No.10s that have just 29 Test caps between them. Tane Edmed made his starting debut against the Pumas on Saturday and found himself in the deep end with some crucial errors adding to an underwhelming performance. Tom Lynagh was subpar in his return a week earlier, while Ben Donaldson hasn't played a minute since the final Lions Test in Sydney over a month ago.
The trio are more than underdone. They're practically raw.
With O'Connor on the pitch throughout the Rugby Championship the Wallabies are +35 points, without him they're -25, representing a 60-point swing. His cameo off the bench in Townsville saw the Wallabies score 14 unanswered points, while he had a hand in their 19 points in Sydney.
While it's been reported Schmidt will still keep the 35-year-old in mind for the Bledisloe series, it presents a logistical nightmare for O'Connor to fly to London only to turn around days later and fly 24 hours back to Sydney with just a week to prepare for the opening Bledisloe in Auckland.
To send the 68-Test veteran away leaves a deep experience gap in one of the most crucial positions on the field, and given the importance of the upcoming Test series, it is astounding that such an experienced coach would make such a decision.
It harks back to the 2023 World Cup which saw Eddie Jones go all in on young, inexperienced flyhalf Carter Gordon with his only back-up another young, inexperienced playmaker in Donaldson. We all know how that tournament ended - an early exit and plenty of tears from fans and players alike.
While the Bledisloe Cup and RC aren't quite the same as a World Cup title, the end to a more than two-decade long Bledisloe drought means almost as much to the players and public alike.
Making the situation even murkier are comments from squad members including Len Ikitau, James Slipper and Tate McDermott encouraging the retention of O'Connor in the squad for the upcoming series.
"Lenny [Ikitau] referred [earlier in the week] to when Quade [Cooper] came in and [the positive impact] that [had] for Noah [Lolesio] and guys underneath," McDermott said after the Wallabies loss to the Pumas. "Ben Donaldson was there as well. I think Rabs [O'Connor] just had a similar effect. There's definitely a place for him long-term, 100 percent."
There's no doubt Schmidt has the right idea in backing in his youth. The countdown is on until the 2027 World Cup kicks off, and the Wallabies squad needs to build now to avoid a similar disaster to that just two years ago, but with silverware on the line his decision could cost Australia their best chance yet of lifting the Bledisloe for the first time in 23-years.
