Baker Mayfield, high-flying Bucs visit Chargers in matchup of teams with winning records

Tampa Bay (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST, FOX

NFL odds: Chargers by 3.

Against the spread: Buccaneers 8-5; Chargers 9-4.

Series record: Chargers lead 8-4.

Last meeting: Chargers beat Buccaneers 38-31 in Tampa, Fla., on Oct. 4, 2020.

Last week: Buccaneers beat Las Vegas 28-13; Chargers lost to Kansas City 19-17.

Buccaneers offense: overall (3), rush (8), pass (6), scoring (5).

Buccaneers defense: overall (28), rush (11), pass (30), scoring (22).

Chargers offense: overall (24), rush (19), pass (25), scoring (13).

Chargers defense: overall (11), rush (T-14), pass (8), scoring (1).

Turnover differential: Buccaneers minus-2; Chargers plus-11.

Buccaneers player to watch

QB Baker Mayfield is trying to lead Tampa Bay to a fourth consecutive NFC South title. He’s already matched a career-best for touchdown passes with 28, but also hasn’t done as good a job of taking care of the football as a year ago. He threw for 295 yards and three TDs in last week’s 15-point win over Las Vegas. He also turned the ball over three times in the first half to help the Raiders stay close until the fourth quarter.

Chargers player to watch

WR Quentin Johnston bounced back from a couple of tough performances to make five catches for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. But inconsistency has been the defining trait of the slow start to Johnston’s NFL career, so being able to follow it up will be telling. The Chargers needed the 2023 first-round pick to step up with rookie Ladd McConkey sidelined because of knee and shoulder injuries last week. With McConkey's status to play Sunday uncertain, Johnston could be called on again.

Key matchup

Chargers RB Kimani Vidal vs. Buccaneers LB Lavonte David. Vidal, a rookie from Troy, seems to have increased his standing in the Chargers’ backfield that definitely missed J.K. Dobbins (knee). Vidal had eight carries for 34 yards while playing 53% of the offensive snaps in Kansas City, more than starter Gus Edwards. The Chargers are going to stick to the run under coach Jim Harbaugh, which means the newcomer Vidal will have to outfox a 13-season veteran in David. At 34, David remains a force, making seven tackles, a sack, a tackle for loss and recovering a fumble against the Raiders. He is eight tackles away from his 11th season of triple-digit stops.

Key injuries

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. left last week’s game with a knee sprain and is expected to be sidelined a couple of weeks. S Mike Edwards (hamstring), OLB Markees Watts (knee), LB K.J. Britt (ankle) and WR Kameron Johnson (ankle) will also miss Sunday's game. Leading rusher Bucky Irving has a back injury and is listed as questionable. … Chargers QB Justin Herbert is dealing with a sprained left ankle, but was a full participant in practice Friday. TE Will Dissly (shoulder) and WR Jalen Reagor (finger) are out.

Series notes

While the Chargers won eight of the first nine meetings between the franchises, Tampa Bay took the past three. … This will be the Buccaneers’ third trip to Los Angeles and second to SoFi Stadium, where they lost 34-24 to the Rams in September 2021.

Stats and stuff

The Bucs are 7-1 in December/January regular-season games going back to last season. They’re 19-5 in those games going back to 2020, the first of Tom Brady’s three years with Tampa Bay. … WR Mike Evans needs 17 receptions and 426 yards over the next four games to finish with his 11th consecutive season with at least 60 catches and 1,000 yards receiving. … Evans had seven receptions for 122 yards and a TD the previous time Tampa Bay faced the Chargers (Oct. 4, 2020). … The Bucs have rushed for 100-plus yards in 10 of 13 games. That’s after doing it just nine times over 34 games the past two regular seasons. … With leading rusher Bucky Irving sitting out most of last week’s game against Las Vegas with a back injury, starter Rachaad White took up the slack with 90 yards rushing on 17 attempts — both season highs. He also scored two TDs, one receiving. … White’s rushing TD was the 14th for Tampa Bay. That’s more than the Bucs scored on the ground in 2022 (five) and 2023 (eight) combined. … The Chargers have turned the ball over a league-low six times. The franchise record for fewest giveaways in a season is 15, which they did in 2006 and 2017. … Herbert hasn’t thrown an interception in 11 straight games. That is tied with Brady for the longest streak in NFL history. Brady closed out the 2010 regular season for New England without being picked off after Week 5. … S Derwin James Jr. has three tackles for loss and two sacks in his past three games. … PK Cameron Dicker has made 65 of 66 field goals under 50 yards in his career, with his 98.5% success rate the best in league history. Dicker has made all 30 attempts inside of 50 yards at home. … The Chargers defense allowed 17 of 31 third down conversions (54.8%) in two games against the Chiefs. They have held their other 11 opponents to 45 of 146 (30.8%).

Fantasy tip

The Buccaneers find ways to play shootouts, with eight of their games seeing the winner score 30 or more points. The Chargers find ways to play grinding affairs, with only two of their games seeing the winner score 28 or more points. Whoever dictates the style of play will determine how much fantasy value comes out of this game.

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