NFL playoffs: Which teams will get a bye as AFC, NFC 1-seed?

Sunday in the NFL was all about the races at the top of the respective conferences. In the AFC, the Bills finally became the first team to vanquish the previously undefeated Chiefs, with a Josh Allen touchdown run sealing Kansas City's fate. The Steelers dispatched the Ravens with a quintessential Pittsburgh performance, down to a perfectly timed Mike Tomlin timeout swinging the game in their favor. Over in the NFC, the Vikings (mostly) cleaned up their offensive operations in a win over the Titans, while the Lions delivered one of the most impressive offensive performances of the season in a blowout win over the Jaguars.

If we include the Eagles, who comfortably outplayed the Commanders for 60 minutes Thursday night to gain control of the NFC East, there are three teams in each conference that can feel like they have a realistic shot of landing the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Let's leave aside Philly for now and talk through the five top-seed candidates that played Sunday, what stands out about their performance and how their chances shape up.

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I'll start in Buffalo, where the Bills beat the Chiefs for the fourth consecutive time in the regular season. Was this the win that suggests the Bills might have a shot if these teams meet again in the playoffs?

AFC

Buffalo Bills 30, Kansas City Chiefs 21

On one hand, Bills fans should be used to beating the Chiefs, but that hasn't translated to the postseason: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have beaten Buffalo all three times they've played each other, including last January's win in front of these very fans in Western New York.

The roar after Josh Allen converted his fourth-and-2 scramble for a 26-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach, though, didn't feel like it was for just another victory. Beating an archrival is always fun, but the roar reinforced two things to me. One was that this was a more meaningful victory in the regular season than the others, given that it denied the 9-0 Chiefs a chance of pursuing an undefeated season. The other is that it felt like a statement of intent. While the Bills blew out the Chiefs early in 2021, this was a relatively comprehensive victory, a game in which they trailed for a total of only seven minutes and 36 seconds. Buffalo's fans roared because they believe they can do it again. They might be right.