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We are through Week 5 of the 2025 NFL regular season, and while the 2026 draft is still months away, it's never too early to take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams -- using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations. Our FPI predictions are currently giving the 0-5 Jets the first pick through five weeks (replacing the Titans, who won Sunday), but who is behind them in the top 10? Where could teams with two first-round picks end up picking? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 6. See more on the NFL draft   1. New York Jets (0-5)Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.1%
 2. New York Giants (1-4)Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.7%
 3. Tennessee Titans (1-4)Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 67.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.0%
 4. New Orleans Saints (1-4)Average draft position: 6.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 55.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 85.7%
 5. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.2%
 6. Miami Dolphins (1-4)Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 76.3%
 7. Cleveland Browns (1-4)Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.6%
 8. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 70.9%
 9. Carolina Panthers (2-3)Average draft position: 10.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 56.8%
 10. Arizona Cardinals (2-3)Average draft position: 11.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.3%
 11. Chicago Bears (2-2)Average draft position: 13.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.6%
 12. Los Angeles Rams (via 2-2 ATL)Average draft position: 15.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.8%
 13. Minnesota Vikings (3-2)Average draft position: 15.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22.7%
 14. Baltimore Ravens (1-4)Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.9%
 15. Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1)Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.2%
 16. Houston Texans (2-3)Average draft position: 16.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.1%
 17. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)Average draft position: 18.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.8%
 18. New England Patriots (3-2)Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.5%
 19. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)Average draft position: 20.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.5%
 20. Washington Commanders (3-2)Average draft position: 20.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.1%
 21. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)Average draft position: 21.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.0%
 22. Denver Broncos (3-2)Average draft position: 21.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.0%
 23. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)Average draft position: 21.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.5%
24. Los Angeles Rams (3-2)Average draft position: 21.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.7%
25. Cleveland Browns (via 4-1 JAX)Average draft position: 22.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.0%
26. Dallas Cowboys (via 2-1-1 GB)Average draft position: 23.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.9%
 27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1)Average draft position: 23.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.2%
 28. San Francisco 49ers (4-1)Average draft position: 24.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.5%
 29. Indianapolis Colts (4-1)Average draft position: 24.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%
 30. Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)Average draft position: 25.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.6%
 31. Detroit Lions (4-1)Average draft position: 25.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.7%
 32. Buffalo Bills (4-1)Average draft position: 26.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.1%
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