NBL Burning Questions: What the league is talking about over the FIBA break

Then there's Melbourne United. They've been so unbelievably impressive and structurally sound that searching for flaws feels almost impolite, yet it's what teams around the league are laser focused on as they endeavour to make sure Dean Vickerman's team doesn't create more separation atop the ladder. Hovering just beneath that chaos are the Brisbane Bullets' revamped roster that suddenly looks like a team capable of making noise, while a cluster toward the bottom of the ladder is jostling for control of the sixth seed.

In short, there's no shortage of opinions or chatter around this league, so let's get into the questions everyone's wrestling with.

Will we see another import change?

We've already seen six imports leave Australian shores, but will there be more?

The short answer is yes.

There was an initial feeling that the Bullets' decision to move on from Jaylen Adams was probably the final instance of an import being cut this season, but there's enough noise to suggest we'll see at least one more.

The next question then becomes: whom?

Since the beginning of the season, there have been questions on whether the South East Melbourne Phoenix could find an upgrade for Hunter Maldonado, but the import market didn't have the sort of talent that warranted the risk of moving on from a solid contributor. We're at a point now, however, where that import market has slightly expanded; combine that with some of Maldonado's availability concerns - he's missed the last few games with a concussion - and one has to wonder if the Phoenix pull the trigger and make a bold, title-race-altering change.

The other team to look at are the Cairns Taipans, where import forward Admiral Schofield has substantially underdelivered relative to head coach Adam Forde's expectations. Schofield is averaging 12.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, shooting just 39.1% from the field and 31.4% from 3PT, all while demonstrating defensive chops that are far below what was advertised. That production and effectiveness is below the standard of a team's first import, so a change-up would be warranted; though, the concerns have existed for some time, and the Taipans have persisted up until this point, so is it worth paying extra for a new player while sitting at 3-12 on the season?

Can the new-look Bullets make a charge?

There aren't many teams who will exit the FIBA break and add three high-minutes players to their roster, but that's exactly what Stu Lash and his Bullets will be doing.

The re-signing of Javon Freeman-Liberty and addition of Terry Taylor adds a pair of high-talent imports to the mix, while Sam McDaniel is edging closer to a return after suffering an ankle injury in the first game of the regular season. There's a very real chance that, once the bulk of the Bullets are completely healthy, all three will be in Lash's starting lineup as we zoom past the midway point of the season.

We can then picture the Bullets' dream: Mitch Norton, Freeman-Liberty, McDaniel, Taylor, and Tyrell Harrison starting games, with Dakota Mathias, Alex Ducas, Jacob Holt, Taine Murray, Tohi Smith-Milner, Tristan Devers, and Jack Purchase coming off the bench. While the 5-10 Bullets have been largely poor this season - some of which is process-based, while horrid luck with injuries also played a part - that starting lineup, on paper, is... really impressive, and balanced.

In a playoff series, you can point to eight or nine - probably eight - playable guys, which you can't do for every team.

Of course, they have to remain healthy, and Lash has to bring the group together to play cohesive two-way basketball - they're currently a bottom-two defence and bottom-three offence - but there's a decent chance this Bullets team becomes one that teams won't want to face come the back-stretch of the season.

Will flaws emerge for United?

Melbourne United is a fascinating case study of a team that has the best processes in the league, has exhibited consistent success, have clear-cut values on and off the court that more-than-likely align with the most amount of people... yet the general NBL fan doesn't love when non-stop, effusive praise is heaped upon them.

Now, we get it. They're the big city team that used to be owned by league owner Larry Kestelman, so the antiestablishment bend will always be popular, but that won't stop us from recognising how impressive they've been. That's because this United team entered the season in mid-season form, and have rarely let up en route to their 13-2 record. Entering this break, they have the league's No. 1 offence (119.9 offensive rating), No. 1 defence (105.8 defensive rating), and lead all teams in True Shooting (57%).

Usually, it's easy to just chalk this up to United getting a favourable home-heavy schedule to start the season, but they also have the NBL's best road record, at 6-1, all while dealing with injuries to key players, which indicates that they're still not looking close to what their final form will be. The top-end talent is elite, they have depth, and no team guards better than them right now.

So, what's this team's Achilles heel? We can look at the back-to-back losses they suffered about a month ago, and determine some of the causes. The three-point shooting took a dip - United shot just 23.3% from 3PT, on 30 3PA in their losses to the Sydney Kings and Illawarra Hawks - while they also had trouble guarding the perimeter, with those teams shooting 47.9% from 3PT through those two games.

The shooting is one to watch, especially if Chris Goulding misses more time, which brings us to the other area they could - and, obviously, every team could - slip up, and that's health. They've handled missing Goulding and Shea Ili for big chunks of time, but they built a roster that could overcome that. Conversely, plugging and playing into one of those frontcourt spots would be a challenge if one of their starters in those positions go down.

Of course, listing shooting luck and injuries as potential downfalls is the most obvious nitpicking that you could apply to every other team in world basketball; but, until United shows otherwise, we'll just be waiting until they show some clear-cut deficiencies.

Will Adelaide's rotation tighten?

There are some things we know about the Adelaide 36ers.

They're an offensive juggernaut, Bryce Cotton will win his sixth MVP award as long as they stay on this track and finish in the top-four, Isaac Humphries is having a resurgent season, and Zylan Cheatham is one of the most effective two-way players in NBL.

What we don't know is what head coach Mike Wells' rotations will look like on any given night. Now, that's not necessarily a bad thing; in fact, it's actually been quite effective. The 36ers entered the FIBA break on a four-game winning streak, with Wells chopping and changing combinations based on matchups and feel. The 36ers' head coach spoke recently about how his starting lineups will continue to be malleable, and the same can be said about the minutes of the non-Cotton perimeter players he cycles through. Between Flynn Cameron, Troy Brown Jr. Dejan Vasiljevic, Isaac White, and Matt Kenyon, the 36ers have different skillsets they can call upon based on what the game needs, and we've seen all five of those players have impressive moments over the team's 11-3 start to the season.

Still, as the season progresses toward the playoffs, the pressure grows, and the 36ers are a team that has yet to be hit by the injury bug - no player has missed a game with injury outside of Ben Griscti - so will they be forced to bend to circumstance and tighten the rotation? Is there value in a tight and fixed rotation, or is it more effective to keep things as they are and let matchups and needed skillsets guide who hits the floor?

The process is working, so there's no reason to change too much, but it's something worth keeping an eye on.

Which teams are really in contention for the 6th seed?

The feeling around the league right now is that the teams currently in the top-five - United, the 36ers, Phoenix, Perth Wildcats, and Sydney Kings - will remain there in some order.

Right now, the Tasmania JackJumpers are No. 6 on the ladder - they're coming off a big home win over the Kings - but will they remain? If so, why? If not, who could work their way in?

The argument for the JackJumpers remaining, and perhaps climbing, is that they're slowly coming back to full health. Will Magnay has returned from his knee complaint, while David Johnson is back from a calf injury that saw him miss over a month of action. The win over the Kings just before the FIBA break was perhaps ominous; a demonstration of how good a healthy JackJumpers can be. Of course, staying healthy will be the key to Scott Roth's team remaining in the conversation, because we've already seen that their depth isn't at the level to make up for significant outs.

The Bullets have an opportunity to enter the conversation, too, because there's potential for their aforementioned new-and-improved lineup to come out of the blocks post FIBA break and make some noise. The top-end talent is there and should win them some games, but Lash's competency as a head coach will likely determine whether they can crack - and sustain their spot - in the top-six.

One of the other contenders for that play-in spot is the Illawarra Hawks, who were flirting with the top-six after wins over Melbourne and Cairns, but then dropped three straight games to put them back into the bottom-two. Of course, the import talent of JaVale McGee and Tyler Harvey - combined with improved play from Will Hickey - make them dynamic and threatening in any game they play, so they'll give themselves a chance to win on any given night. Unfortunately, they're alongside Brisbane and Cairns as a bottom-three defence, all while being a bottom-two offence, so the lack of an identity and a hyper-exploitable defence will make climbing the ladder challenging.

Finally, there's something about the New Zealand Breakers that feels redeemable. They're tied with Brisbane on a 5-10 record and currently sit in seventh place, but Petteri Koponen has had them in a position to win a heap of those games, led by Parker Jackon-Cartwright and Sam Mennenga. While their depth has often let them down, the Breakers have enough effective pieces to be competitive every game, highlighted by a top-four defence. A defence that effective usually indicates a high floor, which is often the team that sneaks into the fifth or sixth spots, so let's see if the Breakers can remedy some of their late-game issues and creep up the ladder.