Olg's Notebook: the NBL's big 'what if', 36ers chasing a legend

Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem. This week, he looks at the NBL's big 'what if', the Illawarra Hawks having one eye toward next season, and the legend the 36ers are chasing.

Will this be the best team that never was?

The New Zealand Breakers are coming off a brutal week of basketball.

On Friday, they fell to Melbourne United in a tight one on the back of a controversial call and a brain fade by an import. They then had a quick turnaround for a Sunday afternoon game in Sydney, where they were manhandled by the Kings.

In a vacuum, the outcome of that two-game round for the Breakers is just par for the course. But, taken into context with the season Mody Maor's team has had, it's given them a steep hill to climb in order to make the play-in.

The pair of losses saw the Breakers drop to 8-12 on the season. The sense around the league is that a 14-14 record should be enough to lock in a play-in berth, so the Breakers will probably have to go 6-2 the rest of the way, with games against Tasmania, in Melbourne, and in Perth still on the agenda.

Now, it's feasible that this team gets the job done, but the fact that they'll have to claw their way into the top-six feels like an injustice, of sorts, considering how talented they are, and the injury luck they had throughout the season. We've still never seen these Breakers at full strength and, by the time we do, it may be too late.

On paper, the Breakers built a roster with the talent to be a very real title contender. They had their two high-level locals in Will McDowell-White and Finn Delany, paired with what's undoubtedly the best import trio in the league in Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Anthony Lamb, and Zylan Cheatham. Lamb was an early-season replacement for Justinian Jessup; the recruitment of top-end talent was something the Breakers nailed, for the second season in a row.

Injuries have been a big part of the reason why they're currently ninth on the ladder, though. McDowell-White missed the bulk of the offseason and preseason with a hand injury, and a good portion of the middle of the regular season with a fractured fibula. Any chance of getting meaningful reps with McDowell-White and Jackson-Cartwright -- the team's two ball-dominant point guards, who could theoretically share the floor -- together was out the window. Mantas Rubštavičius -- the team's Next Star -- dealt with multiple leg injuries early in the season, before emerging as a starter-level producer for the Breakers.

Of course, there was also the injury to Cheatham; a foot fracture early in the season that saw him miss two months of action, leaving the Breakers without someone they envisioned as one of the most impactful in the NBL and their insurance policy for sub-par recruiting at the five-spot.

Just before Christmas, when the team was finally at full strength and was primed for a run to get back into the playoff hunt, Finn Delany suffered a calf injury in practice. Maor got 44 minutes of a practice with his full team -- the first time he's had it all season long -- before Delany went down with an injury that he still hasn't returned from.

Now, there have obviously been non-injury issues with the Breakers. They're the worst defensive team in the league -- though the range between each team isn't too large -- which can only somewhat be attributed to some of their outs, and their big depth was questionable going into the season.

Every team, across every league in the world, battles through injury adversity. The South East Melbourne Phoenix are going through it again and don't have the depth to make up for it, while Melbourne United have gone stretches without key players. The adage is that the team that stays healthy is the one most likely to go all the way, and that's largely true for this NBL season. For these Breakers, though, the injuries have come to the worst possible players; generally, those who are the toughest to replace at a given time, or the ones they needed to get reps into for long-term success, and at the worst possible time. There was real hope that, if healthy, the roster they'd constructed could be a legitimate threat to win a championship.

All hope isn't lost. There's still a chance the Breakers win enough games to make the play-in, then everything is basically back to 0-0. If they get there, would they be as connected as they would've been, had they not gone through these injury woes? Probably not. Would they still be talented enough to strike fear in the eyes of whomever they face? Probably.

It was just worth noting what this team could've been if they had some injury luck, because there's a chance they end up as one of the best teams that never was.

Hawks looking to lock in what they like 

The Illawarra Hawks are closing in on a potential play-in berth, but have one eye on next season.

Throughout Justin Tatum's inspired start as interim head coach of the Hawks, the team's decision-makers decided to leave him be. They'd watch from afar, allowing the American to introduce his identity onto a team that basically operated for 18 months without one.

The Hawks are 7-3 since Tatum took over from Jacob Jackomas, putting themselves right in the mix for a potential play-in opportunity; something that seemed impossible when he took over, and their renewed hope is in large part due to the processes their interim head coach has implemented in his short time at the helm.

With Tatum's start as head coach looking more than just a honeymoon period, it's looking likely he'll be losing that 'interim' tag sooner than later.

Hawks owner Jared Novelly and General Manager of Basketball Mat Campbell plan to meet with Tatum this week to discuss his future with the team, sources told ESPN.

Given the nature of his success thus far, it seems inevitable that a deal will ultimately be struck with Tatum to remain as head coach of the Hawks through next season, but that's not the only step toward creating sustainability going into the 2024-25 NBL season.

The Hawks have begun talks with import forward, Gary Clark, on a new deal that would extend beyond this season, sources said.

Clark has been one of the most productive imports this season, averaging 15.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. With the majority of the Hawks' local core already signed for the 2024-25 season, the team is finding some sustainability and hope to use the successful back-end of this campaign to continue on an upward trajectory.

Adelaide has eyes on Goorj 

As the Adelaide 36ers scour the market and debate internally on who will fill their vacant head coach position following this season, one name has become particularly enticing: Brian Goorjian.

Goorjian is among those the 36ers have a strong interest in taking over as head coach of the team, sources said. Goorjian, the current Australian Boomers head coach, has publicly expressed his desire to be a head coach in the NBL after Australia's 2024 Paris Olympics campaign is over.

Goorjian is a six-time NBL champion and six-time NBL Coach of the Year, with his most recent stint in the NBL coming from 2020-2022 with the Hawks.

The 36ers' current interim head coach, Scott Ninnis, has both publicly and privately expressed a strong desire to remain in the role following this season, but there remains an expectation the team will continue to look elsewhere to fill the role.

My favourite plays of the week

Tahjere McCall's ability to change direction is really elite. Here, he uses it to split the defenders to get on the rim.