Olg's Notebook: NBA teams are in town, is Sarr shutting it down?

Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem. This week, he looks at whether Alex Sarr is considering shutting it down, the citizenship question that could shift the upcoming NBL free agency, and which NBA teams have been in Australia recently.

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Is Alex Sarr shutting it down? It doesn't seem that way

Having the potential No. 1 pick in the NBL has its obvious benefits.

A heap of NBA eyes descend on the league, and a really high level prospect grows before our very eyes, on Australian soil.

Whomever you support in the NBL, that guy will be an effective NBA player for some time, so we should obviously appreciate the opportunity to watch and follow him so closely.

Unfortunately for the league, the prospect of a shut down is always going to be part of the conversation with that level of player.

LaMelo Ball did it as soon as he got a few impressive games under his belt and was projected high enough.

Josh Giddey waited until his team was out of playoff contention, then pulled the plug.

It's a natural conversation for players whose goals are bigger and better things than the NBL, which is a league that, rightly or wrongly, cherishes being a stepping stone.

That's where we are with Alex Sarr - currently ESPN's projected No. 1 overall pick for the 2024 NBA Draft - who just suffered a hip strain that will have him out for a few weeks.

The first question that many around the league brought to me was: is this the start of a shut down? It's a reasonable assertion.

The circumstances around the injury - a slip on a decal - is the exact type of freak injury any top prospect's camp will seek to avoid.

It's about risk management.

Sarr is looking like a consensus top-five pick, so one wouldn't blame him for shutting up shop.

This coming draft class is quite bad; in any 'normal' year, Sarr is probably a mid-to-late lottery guy, so minimising the risk from this point on and making sure he's well-placed to remain atop this group of prospects makes a lot of sense.

From everything we're hearing, though, this injury isn't that.

It's not a mirage to hide the beginnings of a shut down, as some warrantably-skeptical people assumed.

All of the intel across the board suggests that Sarr will play out the remainder of the Perth Wildcats' season, as he's publicly indicated.

The whole 'NBA teams love to see a guy stay and compete' isn't really a thing; that's more of an Australian sporting culture's fantasy.

NBA franchises are aware of the risk-reward proposition and why someone like Sarr might want to shut it down.

Where the value in staying lies, though - outside of the prospect of continuing to play good basketball - is the potential of winning.

Now, that's something NBA teams do put a ton of stock into.

Being able to impact winning basketball isn't a small thing; Sarr has demonstrated that, and can realistically continue doing it en route to an NBL title, should his Wildcats continue this blistering form.

Tyler Harvey: an Australian?

There's something that could throw a giant spanner in the works of the upcoming NBL free agency.

That's the impending citizenship eligibility of Tyler Harvey, who's in his fourth season as an import with the Illawarra Hawks.

Harvey will be eligible to get his Australian citizenship in January of 2025, sources told ESPN, which could mean he'd be considered a non-restricted player (a local) from the middle of the 2024-25 NBL season onwards.

Harvey's first season was a revelation - enough for the Hawks to extend him for multiple seasons - and, since then, has continued to show glimpses of being one of the league's high-level imports.

The shooting guard's form has been up and down over the past two seasons, and reliability is the name of the game when it comes to imports, so there was no guarantee the Hawks, or any NBL team, would choose to bring him back.

Harvey being naturalised changes that.

Not having to use an import spot on Harvey, as well as being able to put a marquee tag on his contract, makes him significantly more valuable in the free agent market, and will likely be the main consideration for interested teams.

An update on the NBA teams in town

Here's the latest update on the NBA teams that have come through Australia to get their eyes on NBL action.

The New York Knicks were the headliners out here over the past few weeks, going two-deep to multiple NBL games.

The Knicks' Assistant General Manager, Walt Perrin, was in town, as well as international scout, Adam Tatalovich. Kent Lacob - the Golden State Warriors' Executive Director of Team Development - took in a few games in recent days, as well as representatives from the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons.

NBA teams have largely been resigned to Perth, NSW, and Melbourne, getting their eyes on Sarr, while making the most of the regions with multiple NBL teams.

Some stats I find interesting

• Since Scott Ninnis was appointed head coach of the Adelaide 36ers, Isaac Humphries' production has increased with no dip in efficiency. Under CJ Bruton this season, Humphries averaged 12.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game, shooting 59 percent from the field on just 7.7 field goal attempts a contest. In six games under Ninnis, he's up to 19.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game, shooting 58 percent from the field on 15.3 field goal attempts a contest.

• In the time since Justin Tatum was appointed interim head coach of the Illawarra Hawks, his team has the league's best defence. In eight games under Tatum, the Hawks have allowed 106.8 points per 100 possessions; the best in the NBL in that stretch of time. In the nine games prior, the Hawks had the worst defence in the NBL (119.1 points allowed per 100 possessions).

• Much has been said about the starting lineup change John Rillie made when the Wildcats' season was in a bad place early in the season. It was the one that moved Jordan Usher to the bench, with Hyrum Harris coming in to play alongside Bryce Cotton, Kristian Doolittle, Keanu Pinder, and Tai Webster. Out of all of the five-man groups that have played at least 100 possessions (they've played 189), that lineup has the best raw +/- with a +68, and is particularly elite defensively, with an adjusted defensive rating of 95.2.

My favourite plays of the week

The partnership between Sam Froling and Gary Clark has been growing by the day, especially since Tatum has placed a larger focus on his frontcourt duo.

Here's Froling finding Clark on the nicely-timed cut to the rim.