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Merab Dvalishvili memorably stole Sean O'Malley's jacket at UFC 288 after his teammate Aljamain Sterling had defended his bantamweight title against Henry Cejudo. O'Malley was there to greet Sterling, as "Suga" was next in line to contest the belt. A few months later, O'Malley would dethrone Sterling to become the new bantamweight champion. Now Dvalishvili has a chance to take O'Malley's belt. At UFC 306 from the Sphere in Las Vegas, O'Malley will defend his title against Dvalishvili in the main event. In the co-main event, this season's "The Ultimate Fighter" coaches -- UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko -- will have their trilogy bout to settle a rivalry and to determine who is the queen of the 125-pound division. Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim offer their first thoughts on the title matchups becoming official. Plus, betting expert Ian Parker explains his early best bets.
Fill in the blank: O'Malley-Dvalishvili will be ___________?Okamoto: The biggest win of O'Malley's career. That might seem like a given -- there's a common thought in combat sports of "your next fight is always the biggest" -- but in this case, it most certainly is. It's a bit wild, considering it wasn't that long ago that a bantamweight matchup between O'Malley and Dvalishvili would have been intriguing and big but not "headline the Sphere" intriguing and big. So much of that has to do with O'Malley. Dvalishvili deserves his credit as well. He has looked like the boogeyman of this division in recent years, and there will be a lot of "Dvalishvili to win" predictions, but the reason this fight is headlining the Sphere is O'Malley. It seems like he is on the cusp of superstardom, and I believe the UFC feels that, and that's why he's getting this platform. And that alone makes this fight O'Malley's biggest. The UFC is going to put significant financial resources into promoting this event. The promotion wants it to feel like a night out of the ordinary. I believe that even more so than April's UFC 300 card or perhaps even a Conor McGregor comeback, UFC CEO Dana White is obsessed with making this a historical show. As important as it was for O'Malley to beat Petr Yan in Abu Dhabi two years ago, win a title against Aljamain Sterling in Boston last year and deliver an elite performance against Marlon Vera in Miami back in March, this moment could eclipse all of them in comparison. This could be the McGregor "Champ champ" moment at Madison Square Garden, given the possible visuals The Sphere can only provide. He would graduate into superstardom with a memorable win here.
Real or not: Dvalishvili will be the biggest challenge in O'Malley's career? Hale: It's real. Very real. Dvalishvili's skill set could end up being O'Malley's worst nightmare. O'Malley has had somewhat of an expedited route to the bantamweight title with a razor-thin -- and somewhat controversial -- decision victory over Yan, allowing him to leapfrog the rest of the division. O'Malley has primarily faced strikers in the UFC and Dvalishvili's relentless pace and determination to drive his opponent to the canvas will be something he has never experienced. Although Sterling's grappling seriously threatened O'Malley, he lacked the explosiveness to secure the takedowns necessary to put those skills to work. Dvalishvili fights like he is shot out of a cannon and O'Malley has yet to face an opponent quite like him. He might not ever, either. Should O'Malley turn back the challenger, any questions about whether he is a certifiable pound-for-pound fighter will be answered.
If Grasso beats Shevchenko, will she become the best women's flyweight ever? Wagenheim: She'd certainly have a strong case. Especially considering Grasso would have zero losses in three fights against Shevchenko. But it's not a slam dunk, any more than a 13-second KO of Jose Aldo makes Conor McGregor the greatest featherweight ever. Longevity matters. A win at UFC 306 would give Grasso two title wins in her career; Shevchenko has eight, by far the most of any 125-pound woman. From 2019 to 2022, "Bullet" reeled off seven consecutive title defenses, and she is the division's all-time leader in numerous statistical categories, from knockouts (four) to takedowns (39), most strikes landed (1,597) to fewest absorbed (1.88 per minute). Shevchenko owns the flyweight division, historically speaking. Last year's loss to Grasso came three days before Shevchenko's 35th birthday. It's reasonable to posit that Father Time was as responsible for the defeat as Grasso was -- and we might see the aging process play a role again Sept 14. Another win would be a building block for Grasso, who is just 30 and has been a flyweight only since 2020. Someday, she might have a résumé worthy of the greatest 125-pounder ever. But, even with a second win over Shevchenko, Grasso would still have more to do.
Early best bets on UFC 306 title fights? Parker: An O'Malley finish or a Dvalishvili marathon. Dvalishvili has to avoid O'Malley's knockout power and turn this into a five-round wrestling match. O'Malley will play the sprawl and brawl tactic until he touches his opponent's chin. Therefore, I am eyeing the props for O'Malley to win by TKO/KO and Dvalishvili by decision. Dvalishvili has a history of being knocked down in fights, but he has found ways to still win each time, usually by decision. The question is, can he recover if he gets dropped by O'Malley? Parker: Bet on Shevchenko. In their first fight at UFC 285, Shevchenko was well on her way to a successful title defense until she made a grave mistake that cost her the belt. In the rematch last September the judges scored the fight as a draw, thus leaving Grasso as champion. I still believe Shevchenko is the better fighter, no matter where the fight goes, and it's hard to imagine she doesn't correct past mistakes in the trilogy bout. Grasso is dangerous if she can get her opponent's back, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should go back to Kyrgyzstan.
What's your UFC 306 bold prediction? Okamoto: The UFC will do it again at the Sphere. White has said this will be a "one-and-done" because of the cost to put it on, and I believe he believes it will be a one-and-done. But "never" is a long time, and the UFC's headquarters isn't moving out of Las Vegas any time soon. I have a hard time believing the UFC will nail this event, put in the work to learn how to pull it off and never do it again. I believe it will go off well, because of the amount of time and resources dedicated to it. I believe fighters who don't make this card will watch and want the experience of fighting there. And I believe, ultimately, it will be too memorable and tempting not to do it again. It might take a few years, but if you end up not getting a ticket to UFC 306 at the Sphere, I think the opportunity will come again eventually. Hale: Shevchenko will find her form and finish Grasso. Yes, Grasso has shown significant improvement over the years and Shevchenko might be on the downside of her career at 36. But a gross miscalculation cost her the first fight and an erroneous 10-8 scorecard robbed her of the opportunity to reclaim her title. Bullet's spent nearly 45 minutes in the Octagon with Grasso and is a master strategist. I expect her to remind everyone why she's the best pound-for-pound fighter in women's MMA. Wagenheim: Dvalishvili will hit double figures in takedowns. It's something he has already done four times in 12 UFC appearances. As long as the challenger doesn't get caught early -- as his teammate Sterling did in his fight with O'Malley last summer -- "The Machine" will have plenty of time to take the fight to the canvas. Relentlessness is his best weapon. Against Yan, Dvalishvili landed 11 takedowns -- on 49 attempts! O'Malley's job won't be so much about fending off takedowns. It'll be about getting the fight back to his wheelhouse -- on the feet
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