Back in the field of 68 for the second time in the last three years, Phil Martelli and the Saint Joseph's Hawks beat the odds and put together one of the nation's most impressive turnarounds. Can Saint Joseph's build off an Atlantic 10 tourney title and cap its best year in more than a decade with an NCAA tournament run?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Columbia, Virginia Tech, at George Washington, Dayton
Worst losses: Duquesne
Regular-season conference finish: Fourth, A-10
Polls and metrics: Saint Joseph's received votes in both polls and ranks in the top 50 in the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 18-24, one Final Four
Coach's tourney record: Phil Martelli (6-6, zero Final Fours)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Isaiah Miles (18.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG)
F DeAndre' Bembry (17.0 PPG, 4.5 APG)
F Pierfrancesco Oliva (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Aaron Brown (9.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Shavar Newkirk (8.5 PPG, 2.8 APG)
Key bench players
F James Demery (8.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
F Papa Ndao (5.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G Lamarr Kimble (5.9 PPG, 2.4 APG)
Biggest strength: The Hawks sport one of college basketball's best 1-2 punches in Bembry and Miles. Their biggest issue last season was that Bembry had to do too much on a team whose only identity on the offensive side was one that consistently couldn't score enough. That's no longer a problem. Miles cut weight, improved his body and developed into one of the Atlantic 10's top players and a fine complement to his fellow all-league selection.
Biggest weakness: Martelli's club has recently struggled with getting consistent stops on the defensive end. Quick guards who can extend the floor seemingly feel like kryptonite to the Hawks, who gave up 10 or more 3s in each of their five conference losses.
Best player: Bembry, because he impacts the game in so many ways. He can get to the lane with ease, step out and hit the 3, and is a powerful finisher at the rim. And that's before we mention his passing, which might be the strongest part of his game. He'll eventually make an NBA team very happy, but for now he's a potential matchup nightmare for all in his path.
X factor: Demery. The much-improved sophomore is one of the top finishers on the team and its second-best defender. Demery has had a hand in some of the Hawks' biggest wins, but lost his way over the last few games of the regular season. A large part of the Hawks' potential tournament success hinges on his ability to find himself again.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Saint Joseph's has a well-balanced offensive attack, with five different players averaging at least eight or more points. The Hawks use quick ball movement and high screens to create high-percentage looks for Bembry and Miles. The duo draws so much attention that there are usually good shots to be had for the rest of Martelli's rotation, including rising point guards Newkirk and Kimble.
Defensive approach: The Hawks are primarily a man team with the occasional (but rare) zone thrown in. They led the A-10 in 3-point percentage defense but have been a bit of a wild card as of late in that category.
How they beat you: Balance and contributions from their entire rotation. Some of the Hawks' best wins have come when they've had four or five players in double figures, a foreign concept just a year ago. Their variety of scoring options makes them a really tough scout for opposing coaches.
How you beat them: Push the pace and make them get into a track meet. Teams that like to get up and down the floor (see St. Bonaventure and Davidson) are a nightmare for the Hawks. They've shown they can score with anybody this year but aren't always able to get the necessary stops in order to create separation in late-game situations, a harsh reality that could rear its ugly head again in the tournament.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through March 6 games.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 52nd (110.9)
Defensive efficiency, 69th (98.3)
3-point percentage, 270th (34.1)
3-point percentage D, 12th (30.6)
Free throw rate, 176th (36.7)
Free throw rate D, seventh (24.7)
TO percentage, fourth (14.3)
TO percentage D, 288th (16.3)
Good stat: 14.3 turnover percentage
Only three programs in all of Division I turn it over less than the Hawks. Teams that take care of the basketball are typically rewarded in March and it might bode well for them in a late-game situation where Martelli & Co. need crisp offensive execution to get a key bucket.
Bad stat: 16.3 turnover percentage D
They might take care of the basketball, but by the same token they don't force many turnovers, either. Their numbers sit in the bottom 70 of 351 programs. It's not all that concerning, but it does plant a seed of doubt as to whether the Hawks can come up with a big takeaway when forced to do so.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Bembry and some of his teammates still have a sour taste in their mouths from an overtime loss to eventual national champ UConn two years ago in Buffalo. It was that night when the future pro said he felt like he had arrived as a Division I basketball player. Neither he nor Miles have forgotten what it was like to go home early, and both present enough matchup problems to potentially get out of the first weekend still standing.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
The fear among the Saint Joseph's faithful is that the twilight zone of perimeter defensive problems will again show up on screen in the field of 68. Chances are there will be an opponent that has the guard play to create mismatches and send the Hawks packing. That could come as early as their first game.