The CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners, in their ninth year in Division I, had never been to the NCAA tournament heading into Saturday night's WAC championship game against top-seeded New Mexico State. But with the title game tied at 54, and with mere seconds remaining, Dedrick Basile crossed over, rose and -- Onions! With one flick of his wrist, Basile sent the Roadrunners speeding out of the Never-Made-The-Tourney club and into the Big Dance for the first time in the school's history. Can the newbies make the most of their first ever appearance?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Grand Canyon, New Mexico State
Worst losses: at Idaho, at Wyoming
Regular season conference finish: T-2nd, WAC
Polls and metrics: The Roadrunners ascended into the KenPom top 100 with their success at the WAC tournament, but remain well outside the RPI top 100.
All-time tourney record: 0-0
Coach's tourney record: Rod Barnes (3-3)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 12.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Aly Ahmed (12.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
F Kevin Mays (12.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG)
F Jaylin Airington (10.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Brent Wrapp (5.2 PPG, 4.3 APG)
G Dedrick Basile (12.0 PPG, 3.6 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Damiyne Durham (11.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Justin Pride (4.0 PPG, 2.9 APG)
F Matt Smith (4.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: Coach Rod Barnes' team is defined by a hounding defense. His guards aren't necessarily the smoothest players with the ball in their hands, but they defend it with verve. Their active hands take opponents out of what they intend to do on offense.
Biggest weakness: CSUB doesn't shoot a horrendous percentage from deep, but that's because many of its players aren't even threats from outside 20 feet. Only Basile and Damiyne Durham actively seek out 3-point looks. That compresses the floor, and allows defenses to collapse on drivers and double the post.
Best player: Basile leads the charge for CSU Bakersfield on both ends of the floor. He's the initiator of the team's defense and its best playmaker on offense. He's also, as seen Saturday, the man to whom Barnes and turns in crunch time.
X factor: Kevin Mays might be CSUB's second-best player, but he's an X factor because he's unique. He's essentially a 6-foot-4 true power forward. He leads the team in rebounding, but can also step outside on offense and hit jump shots. Mays is a potential matchup nightmare if he can pull a larger opposing big out of the paint but still contend with him on the boards.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Roadrunners have some athletes, but they don't really have an offensive identity. Their most-used offensive option, center Aly Ahmed, is an inefficient one whose aggressiveness can be his undoing. When the offense is functioning, it's running through Basile and Mays.
Defensive approach: CSUB often picks up in the backcourt and has the ability to pressure a team for 94 feet. It's not a true full-court press in that the Roadrunners don't trap or try to force turnovers before opponents cross midcourt. The turnovers do come in halfcourt sets though.
How they beat you: They pester you into mistakes and disrupt the flow of your offense. They then crash the boards to make up for a lack of scoring talent, grind out offensive possessions, and frustrate you.
How you beat them: CSUB defended the paint really well this season. Its 2-point defense ranked 18th in the nation. But its lack of size at all five positions, not just in the frontcourt, will turn into a debilitating weakness against major conference powerhouses.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 206th (102.1)
Defensive efficiency, 41st (96.2)
3-point percentage, 224th (33.7)
3-point percentage D, 80th (32.8)
Free throw rate, 153rd (37.6)
Free throw rate D, 281st (41.8)
TO percentage, 183rd (18.2)
TO percentage D, 30th (21.0)
Good stat: 21.0 defensive turnover percentage
CSU Bakersfield actually rose to 15th nationally in turnover percentage by wreaking havoc on the WAC conference tournament. In the final against New Mexico State, it forced 14 turnovers, a big reason for its victory in Las Vegas.
Bad stat: 49.0 effective field goal percentage
In its three conference losses, Bakersfield scored 0.87, 0.88 and 0.79 points per possession. All three marks represent the team's biggest issue: When it isn't getting open looks, its lack of shot-makers shines through and holds it back.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: One stunning upset
CSU Bakersfield's upset formula is simple. If it can make the game ugly, and in effect close the talent gap between itself and an opponent with more-skilled players, it could find itself in a close game. Barnes' NCAA tournament experience -- he led Ole Miss to a Sweet 16 in 2001 -- could prove crucial.
Worst-case scenario: First-round loss
The Roadrunners, in all likelihood, will get bounced in the first round. Their staunch defense will be exposed by superior athletes, and they won't even be able to keep their opening game close.