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We've finally reached Selection Sunday! That's a good thing for all the teams that have already secured automatic bids or have strong odds to make the NCAA tournament. For everyone else, it's a source of panic. But we're here, along with Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, to help as a guide to making it through. As of now, according to ESPN Analytics' tournament forecast model, 37 teams have achieved at least a 95% chance to make the tournament (including all 31 automatic bids), and four others are in solid shape (70-95%). But that leaves 18 teams sitting between 25% and 69% odds, their fates still uncertain. Only a few games of bubble consequence happened Sunday: VCU defeating George Mason in the Atlantic 10 Conference championship game, and UAB falling to Memphis for the American Athletic Conference title. But the real drama is around all the teams that didn't play Sunday. Will Texas and/or North Carolina make it? What about Arkansas? Indiana? Xavier? How many teams will the mighty SEC get -- and what might that mean downstream for conferences such as the ACC and Mountain West? According to ESPN Analytics' final projection, the 22 bubble teams are fighting over 11 spots. The cutline in the model is between Indiana (at 47%) on the positive side -- joined by Texas (66%), Arkansas (64%), North Carolina (63%), Vanderbilt (61%) and Georgia (61%) -- and Xavier (44%) on the negative side -- joined by SMU (37%), Boise State (36%), Ohio State (33%), San Diego State (31%) and Wake Forest (29%). But that's just a computer model; humans can sometimes disagree with the stats, as we know all too well. Read on for our breakdown of each bubble team by conference and current category (based on its projected NCAA tournament status). Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.) A team marked Should Be In has a BPI probability from 70% to 94%. These are teams that, most likely, will get into the field of 68, though their fates are not completely assured yet. And a team with the Sweating out the selection show tag has anywhere from 25% to 69% tourney odds per the BPI, or is featured in ESPN's most recent Bracketology. Here is our current projection of the bubble: Clinched auto-bids (31 teams): SIU Edwardsville, High Point, Lipscomb, Drake, Omaha, Wofford, Troy, St. Francis (PA), Robert Morris, UNC Wilmington, Gonzaga, McNeese, American University, Montana, Bryant, Norfolk State, Colorado State, Houston, St. John's, Mount St. Mary's, Akron, Duke, Liberty, UC San Diego, Alabama State, Grand Canyon, Yale, VCU, Florida, Michigan, Memphis
At-large bids available: 37 teams
Locks: 37 teams
The Bubble: 22 total teams
Should be in: 4 teams
Sweating out the selection show: 18 teams Here's the rundown of teams -- conference by conference -- in order of which conferences projects to get the most NCAA bids. And we've listed expected number of bids for each of the power conferences. The teams are listed in order within each category based on their chances to get a tourney bid. Notes: All times are Eastern. SOR = strength of record. SOS = strength of schedule. NET rankings = The NCAA's official evaluation tool, which is the recommended rating for the committee to look at. SRS = Simple Rating System. WAB = Wins Above Bubble, a team's extra wins beyond what a typical bubble team would have against its schedule. Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten
Big 12 | ACC | Big East
Mid-majors | Others   SEC (12.3 expected bids)Locks (95% tourney chance)
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