Morikawa is the perfect combination of current form and past success at Augusta, which feels very similar to Jon Rahm's combination ahead of his first Masters win in 2023. Morikawa is the PGA Tour's leader in strokes gained: approach this season, and he's hit the most fairways of any player at Augusta over the past five years. Morikawa has been inside the top 15 on the leaderboard after each of his past 11 Masters rounds with ultimate finishes of fifth, T10 and T3 in his past three Masters.
It's time. Rory has been chasing an elusive green jacket for more than a decade. He's had a lot of close calls in that time -- usually through the back door. This is the year I think it finally happens for the Irishman. He's already won twice in 2025 at Pebble Beach and the Players. I don't love this price preflop, so what I'd suggest doing is to buy McIlroy after Round 1 or 2 hoping his odds have gotten a little longer before a weekend charge. Rory is ready. It's time.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Winner: Morikawa (+1400)
He's trending in all the right ways -- seemingly figuring Augusta out year by year. Morikawa doesn't need a hot putter to win, just a neutral one. His irons are dialed, his confidence is building, and the rain-softened greens Friday? Advantage Morikawa. He's got the major pedigree, the discipline, the course history and now the form. You don't need a flashy game at Augusta. You need precision. Control. Poise. He has all three. This is the year the puzzle pieces fall into place. The jacket fits.
Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: McIlroy (+600)
There are two metrics I'm putting a lot of faith in to handicap a winner. The last four winners at Augusta were ranked first or second in strokes gained: tee to green. McIlroy comes into the Masters second in that category and sixth in driving distance. Weather conditions are expected to be nice, sunny, little wind and temperatures in the 70s ... perfect to grip and rip! Rory will have an advantage getting to the par 5s in two.
Who is your favorite bet to make the Top 10?
Gordon: Sepp Straka (+525)
Straka is one of two players ranked inside the Top 10 in both fairways hit and greens in regulation on the PGA Tour this season, and the only other is among the betting favorites to win (Morikawa). The +525 is a great price for someone with a win this season plus two top-10 finishes in signature events (T-7th at Pebble Beach, T-5th at Bay Hill). His career-best T-16th came at last year's Masters and he's now playing at Augusta for the 4th time.
Fulghum: Sergio Garcia (+600)
The 2017 Masters champ enters the 2025 tournament in great form, though you may not be aware since it has come on the LIV Tour. Garcia has three top-six finishes in five starts this year, including a win at LIV Golf Hong Kong. According to Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X), Garcia has gained 22.1 strokes tee-to-green in his last four events.
Maldonado: Corey Conners (+800)
He's arriving in peak form -- six-plus strokes gained tee to green in multiple starts, and the putter isn't holding him back as much. His Augusta history says he can thrive here: three straight top 10s before two down years caused by cold putting and shaky irons. Now? He's sharper. He's not a major contender, but for a Top 10, that's exactly the profile. Friday's rain softens the greens -- advantage ball strikers. The risk is always the putter. But if the irons stay hot and he holds it together around the greens, he's a solid risk.
Marks: Russell Henley (+380)
Henley previously finished T4 here in 2023, and sports three top 15s at Augusta. A Georgia native who is having a fantastic year, he won Bay Hill and has been finishing in the top 10 frequently. His game has no flaws at the moment, and I plan to see him near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?
Fulghum: Top American golfer (+270)
Scheffler's pricing is so expensive in every market, it's really hard to bet him. Here, however, we get a decent +270 return to be just the top American in the tournament. I'll bite. We know he's the most likely player of any nationality to win the tournament, so we get that win equity, but we also eliminate the outcomes of other contenders such as Rory, Rahm, Ludvig Åberg and Joaquín Niemann. If you want to take a similar approach as I am to Rory and bet Scheffler after Round 1 or 2 hoping his odds get longer, I have no problem with that either.
Gordon: To finish the first round Inside the top 10 (+162)
I agree with Tyler -- it's hard to find ways to bet Scheffer. I think this is one of them, as Scheffler's finished inside the top 10 in 10 of his past 12 Masters rounds (83%). Plus, he's been sixth or better after the opening round in each of the past three Masters. I understand this price given he's finished the opening round inside the Top 10 just once in six starts on Tour this season, but he's also been very close to this threshold numerous times -- tied for 11th through 18 holes at Bay Hill, tied for 14th through 18 holes in his last start in Houston.
Maldonado: To finish the first round Inside the top 10 (+162)
I thought I was being clever with this wager and then I saw Gordon. Scheffler's ballstriking is outrageous. He's doing all the heavy lifting with his irons, and even when the putter disappears, he finds a way to hang around. That's the story with him -- volatile short game, but a floor that's still top 10. Soft greens Friday help take pressure off the putter, and if you're betting on anything, it's the most reliable tee-to-green game in golf. He's in form. He's won here. And he doesn't need a hot putter to contend -- just the rest of his game, which shows up every single week.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (let's say 50-1 or longer)
Gordon: Cameron Young (+17500)
Perhaps the first major on the calendar will get Young to wake up from this nightmare of a start to the season. While 175-1 is warranted for someone with Young's profile -- 156th in strokes gained: tee to green this season, and four missed cuts in his past six starts -- Young was 50-1 to win the Masters just a year ago and has the ability to turn it on, or snap out of it, in a heartbeat. He finished T18th at the Valero Texas Open this past week.
Fulghum: Phil Mickelson (+10000)
I am always willing to give Mickelson a chance to contend at this course. He knows it better than anyone else in the field. Lefty's game is definitely not as consistently sharp as it was when he was on the Tour, but that matters little for a player with his experience. He finished T2 at The Masters just two years ago! His +10000 odds implies a 1% chance that Lefty can win it. I think that's shorting his true probability which is giving anyone who bets him at 100-to-1 some value on the ticket.
Maldonado: Robert MacIntyre (+5500)
Bobby Mac is trending at the right time. The Augusta sample size is small, but it's solid with two Top 25 finishes. Since his back injury in late 2024, he's looked sharper with each start, gaining on approach, and ballstriking up, with confidence returning. He doesn't need to be perfect -- just steady. And for a player who doesn't flinch, this course, in this setup, suits him just fine. Top 20 (+150) is how I would actually wager on Mac, but +5500 is a smart dart.
Are there any other bets that stand out to you?
Gordon: Russell Henley over Patrick Cantlay (Full tournament matchup: +100)
Henley will be among my outright selections, and was nearly my favorite bet to finish in the Top 10, but I love this matchup as another way to play the 35-year old with three Top-15 finishes in his last five Masters appearances. Henley is in the midst of the best season of his career with four Top-10 finishes already (tied for the most on Tour) including his win at Bay Hill. Cantlay is understandably a short favorite in this matchup but has just one Top-15 finish in the last five Masters.
Fulghum: Max Homa to miss the cut (-115)
Even in this smaller field, I'm not sure how anyone can have much confidence in Homa right now. He certainly doesn't appear to have much confidence in his own game. Homa has failed to get to the weekend in five straight events, including two signature events that have similar cut rules to the Masters -- the Arnold Palmer Invite and the Genesis Invitational. I'm fading Homa every way possible this week.
Maldonado: Tyrell Hatton to make the cut: No (+240)
Augusta doesn't reward fire -- it punishes it. Hatton is a pressure cooker: volatile and often walking the tightrope between brilliance and blowup. He doesn't just play golf -- he reacts to it. And that's precisely where Augusta National tightens the screws. This course doesn't care about your fire --- it demands patience. Hatton has the talent to contend but Augusta doesn't always care about talent. He's lost strokes off the tee in seven consecutive tournaments, while his short game has been inconsistent. If he starts slow this week, don't expect a rally. Expect fireworks - the wrong kind.
Marks: Top American golfer -- Collin Morikawa (+800)
Morikawa ranks first on tour in strokes gained: tee to green -- again, the most important metric to win at Augusta. He has finished in the top 10 his past three trips, and now has the course knowledge to bring home a green jacket.
