<
>

Are Liverpool already out of the title race? Here's what the stats say

play
Laurens: Slot starting Wirtz vs. Man City made no sense (2:06)

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss Florian Wirtz's performance in Liverpool's 3-0 loss to Manchester City. (2:06)

For Arne Slot and Liverpool, a miserable October is threatening to be followed by a dreary November.

Sunday's 3-0 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad saw them suffer a fifth defeat in their last six league games, leaving their title hopes in early trouble.

"It feels there are too many [defeats]," Slot said in his postmatch news conference.

"Our first focus should be on getting results and the last thing we should focus on is on the title race," he added.

It all comes on the heels of a summer that saw them bask in the glory of the Premier League title and over £400 million ($534.96m) on deals for Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike and Jeremie Frimpong.

Here, ESPN troves through the stats and looks at how unprecedented Liverpool's form has been in recent weeks and how rough their title chances now look. Plus, is there any chance they will find a fix soon?


How bad have Liverpool been?

It has been a season of two halves so far.

On the surface, they enjoyed a perfect start, with seven straight wins in all competitions in a run that saw them face Newcastle United, Arsenal and Atlético Madrid.

There were warning signs, though. In every game bar the 2-1 win over Everton, every winning goal came in the 83rd minute or later, while Liverpool let a two-goal lead slip on three separate occasions.

However, once momentum turned, things went south in a hurry. Six straight defeats to Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Manchester United, Eintracht Frankfurt, Brentford and to Palace (again) followed. Slot's side broke that streak with a 2-0 win over Aston Villa and 1-0 win over Real Madrid, but Sunday's loss to City meant their good work was undone.

Look at the stats, and the No. 4 appears a lot.

Since the Premier League's inception in 1992, Liverpool have suffered a four-game losing streak just three times (1993-94, 2002-03 and 2020-21). They broke that run with the home win vs. Villa.

But their away league form is still dire, with four straight defeats on the road (and seven in their last 10 dating back to last season). The club have not had an away record that bad since February to April 2012 under Kenny Dalglish.


Are Liverpool's title chances already over?

play
1:03
Ogden: Liverpool have made too many changes to title winning team

Mark Ogden questions Liverpool's next move after a heavy 3-0 defeat to Manchester City.

Ask Virgil van Dijk, and he will say it is too early to look at the Premier League table.

"There's no point looking at he table for us, that is it," he said.

"I don't think there is any point for us. If you lose as many games as we have lost, I don't think we can look at the table at this point, but I have been in the game quite a long time [to know] that seasons aren't decided in November or December."

If he did take a quick glance at the table, though, it would be tough to stomach.


- Slot: 'Obvious and clear' VAR wrong on Van Dijk
- VAR Review: Why Van Dijk's Liverpool goal was disallowed
- Ogden, Lindop: City show their potential with signature win vs. Liverpool


Liverpool's five defeats have left them eighth in the Premier League with 18 points after 11 games. They're eight points behind leaders Arsenal and four behind second-place City. That does not seem like a mountain to climb, although history is not in Liverpool's favour, and their margin for error has already evaporated.

According to ESPN Global Research, no team has ever had 18 points after 11 games and gone on to win the title -- although six teams have had 19 points at this stage.

Liverpool's five defeats may already be a problem, too. Since Arsenal's 'Invincibles' went unbeaten in 2003-04, only three teams have lost six games and gone on to win the title (Chelsea 2009-10; City 2013-14, 2020-21). The only title-winning team to ever lose seven in one season is Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95.

It means Slot and his side have no time to waste to turn around their season if they still have hopes of defending their crown.

Van Dijk may not be worried about the table just yet -- "it's when it comes to March or April time when it starts to become very interesting how it all shapes up there," he said -- but already those hopes are starting to look slim.

According to OPTA Projections, Liverpool have just a 7% chance to win the league (Arsenal are favourites at 63.6%, while City are second at 22.9%.)


Why Liverpool's form could improve

play
1:59
Nicol: Arne Slot should bench Mohamed Salah

Steve Nicol explains why he thinks Liverpool's Arne Slot should bench Mohamed Salah.

The main reason for immediate hope for Liverpool does not come on the pitch, but rather via the fixture list.

Their recent run has seen them face a number of top-half sides -- namely, Crystal Palace, United, Chelsea and City. That difficult period looks to be over, though, with five of their next seven Premier League games coming against sides in the bottom half.

First, they host Nottingham Forest after the November international break before travelling to West Ham. From there, they have newly promoted sides Sunderland (H) and Leeds United (A) before facing Brighton (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (H) and Fulham (A).

Also note that the top-half teams they face in that run are underdogs Sunderland and Spurs, whose home form is the second-worst in the league so far.

Champions League games against PSV Eindhoven (H) and Inter Milan (A) are interspersed within that run.

On top of the fixture list, the more time playing together will help with team cohesion after their summer overhaul.