Hope springs eternal when it comes to baseball teams, both in the major leagues as well as with fantasy baseball squads. Some of the biggest importers of hope each season are those "shiny new toys" -- highly touted rookies who have yet to disappoint, bringing tons of promise and optimism to the table.
The list you're about to read is strictly for fantasy purposes and is a spin on my real-world value Top 100 list, which is heavily influenced by scouts, executives and my own scouting looks. I don't play fantasy anymore, but I do help some friends with their teams, and I get the big-picture adjustments from the baselines of my other lists: defense doesn't matter, position matters a little, speed doesn't really matter unless they steal bases, lean to position players over pitchers, etc. This list will generally be in the order of that list, only after adjusting for those factors, projected playing time, and how well I think they'll adjust to the big leagues in 2024 specifically.
With that in mind, here's my ranked top 15 of the best fantasy bets for 2024 among prospects and rookies -- and I'll detail below where those two terms diverge. These candidates were culled from my original list of 765 players whom I ranked on this year's team lists (split into AL and NL prospects), so there are a few dozen more viable Rookie of the Year (ROY) candidates I could rank. However, I know you are looking more at the top of this list for your drafts than the bottom. But if you're looking for deep sleepers, I have a long list of others to monitor at the bottom.
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1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yamamoto signed a 12-year deal for $325 million, so he's one of the rare rookies where you don't have to worry that he'll get sent down if he starts slowly, or if the team is fully convinced he can contribute this season. He has all the components to be a frontline starter immediately and also has the added benefit of big league hitters not being familiar with him yet, while also being on one of the best teams in baseball.
Pitchers are risky, and rookies are super risky, but this is close to as much of a sure thing as you'll see as a rookie pitcher. Since Yamamoto and some players below signed as professionals from foreign leagues, they weren't eligible for my prospect lists. However, they are first year players, so they're included here for informational purposes.
2. Wyatt Langford, LF, Texas Rangers
Langford was my top prospect in the 2023 MLB draft, when most publications and many teams had Dylan Crews ahead of him. After torching the minors in 2023, he's now expected to be in the Opening Day lineup for the defending champs.
He's a plus-plus runner with plus-plus raw power, so there's real power/speed upside, and he has already addressed one major fantasy concern after signing -- he stole only 16 bases in 134 college games, but then stole 12 bases in just 44 pro games. Langford could go 20-20 as a rookie and has 30-30 upside, so he could be a force in the big leagues and ROY favorite as soon as Opening Day
3. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
You probably know Chourio's name as he's a consensus top-three prospect in the game and recently signed an eight-year, $82 million contract before even playing a single big league game. He's now expected to open the season as Milwaukee's everyday center fielder and he doesn't turn 20 years old for a few more weeks. If it all clicks for Chourio, this could be a few spots too low as he has an elite power/speed combo. He hit 22 homers and stole 44 bases in the upper minors last season and his upside might even be a bit better on both figures.
I've hedged a bit because Chourio is so young, has only played six games in Triple-A, and had above-average chase and swing rates last season. These are yellow flags in my book that the translation of his stats/tools to the big leagues isn't a slam dunk to happen right away. For reference, these things were true to various degrees of both Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez (the second and third best prospects at that time) in 2022 and both went 20-20 as rookies.
If Chourio has a tough first month, there's a shot he's sent back to the minors and things just come a little more slowly than some expect. But he could also be one of the couple dozen best fantasy players in the league.
4. Evan Carter, CF, Rangers
Carter had a blazing-hot debut and playoff run so you're probably familiar with him, but he still has prospect/ROY eligibility. He's a better outfield defender right now than Langford (which means Langford could open the year as the regular DH) and Carter stole 29 bases last year (across four levels), but he's ranked third because his power upside is much lower. The 16 homers Carter hit last season is about what you should expect as an upside, so he might also come in a bit below that.
5. Jung Hoo Lee, CF, San Francisco Giants
Lee signed for six years, $118 million after leaving Korea's KBO, which he has dominated since he was 18 years old in 2017. He has excellent feel for contact and a great approach along with plus speed, but fringy raw power. Lee's power upside is similar to Carter, but Lee hasn't stolen as many bases and hasn't faced big league pitching yet, so Carter gets the slight nod. That said, Lee could be a .300 hitter with double-digit homers and steals if it all clicks in 2024.
6. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Holliday's pro career has been surprisingly good even considering he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2022. He just turned 20 years old and is expected to open 2024 in the big leagues, probably at second base in deference to last year's Rookie of the Year, SS Gunnar Henderson.
Holliday is very advanced with good tools, but doesn't have the flashy power/speed combos of some of the players ahead of him. He hit 12 homers and stole 24 bases last season across four minor league levels. I'd say his best years will be 20-25 homers and stolen bases, but I don't think that will happen in 2024.
In addition, the O's have so many solid infield options that a slow start means Holliday would have a real shot to go back to the minors. He's one of the favorites for AL ROY but I'd lean to Texas' Langford and Carter due to the physical tools of Langford and likelihood that Carter will spend the entire season in the big leagues.
7. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Imanaga signed a four-year, $53 million deal this winter and is 30 years old, so he's a little more of the typical NPB import starting pitcher, as opposed to Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto. I mentioned in my free agent projection blurb that he has some parallels to Sonny Gray and is a notch behind Kodai Senga in terms of overall impact. Call Imanaga a third starter on a good team.
8. Noelvi Marte, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Marte is part of a deep Cincinnati infield with seven candidates -- Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and even projected LF Spencer Steer -- who are all capable of starting at multiple spots on the infield. Marte is a good bet to hit, hit for power, and steal a couple of bags, but probably not stand out in any one category. The downside is there's a lot of guys fighting for playing time, he's still 22 years old, and he has played just 39 career games at Triple-A, so being sent down is an option if he starts slow.
9. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Winn is unbelievably physically talented with plus speed and a top-of-the-scale arm that reminds me a bit of Rafael Furcal as a player. Winn's big league debut last summer was pretty bad at the plate, but he looks set to be the Cards' Opening Day shortstop. I'd keep expectations low and look for something like a .240 average and low double digits in both homers and stolen bases, but the upside is here to eventually grow into a centerpiece of the team.
10. Colt Keith, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Keith signed a six-year, $28.6 million deal this winter, before he's played a game in the big leagues. You don't need to worry that he's not a very good defender really anywhere as the Tigers look like they'll give him a chance to break camp as the primary second baseman, with a shot to play all four corner spots, as well. Being a lefty hitter, he'll be the side of a platoon with more at-bats that brings me to the selling point here: power. Keith should hit for a fine but not great average. However, he clubbed 27 homers in the upper minors last year and he might put up 25-30 homers in his best big league seasons, too.
11. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants
Harrison is a solid stealth NL ROY pick due to his swing-and-miss stuff from a tricky slot on the left side. He was solid in seven MLB starts last summer and is penciled into a rotation headlined by Logan Webb where Harrison might be the second-best option. Harrison's command has been the weak point of his profile in the past, but the components are there to turn over lineups and put up bulk innings in 2024.
12. Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Wells should be the primary catcher, getting the bulk of the at-bats behind the plate with righty-hitting Jose Trevino as the complement when facing left-handed pitchers. You don't need to worry about Wells' below-average arm strength as long as he qualifies as a catcher and he'll probably hit enough to be a fantasy factor. He'll run an average at or below .250, but should hit double-digit homers.
13. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Schanuel blitzed his way to the big leagues in the same summer he was drafted in the first round out of FAU. For a first baseman with plus raw power, he didn't show much. That said, he was also being thrown into the deep end of the pool and did a solid job of keeping his head above water. Another lefty hitter that may be platooned, Schanuel should get the bulk of the 1B at-bats and is a good bet to hit and get on base, likely with average-or-so power output. Let's call it 15 homers.
14. Wilyer Abreu, RF, Boston Red Sox
Another lefty hitter playing on the best end of a platoon, Abreu looks set for the bulk of the at-bats in right field for the Sox. He might get to double figures in both homers and steals (as he hit 24 HR and stole 11 bases last season) and hit .250 or so.
15. Parker Meadows, CF, Tigers
I'm the high guy in the industry on Meadows, ranking him 45th in baseball, and he's also set to start the season as the everyday center fielder for the Tigers. He won't hit for much average, but I ranked him so highly due to his rare power/speed combo, which led to 22 homers and 27 steals last season. You don't care that he'll also play a solid defensive center field, but that will help keep him in the lineup if he's slumping, as will being the lefty-hitting side of any possible platoon.
I'd say each of these last four players in my top 15 are all reasonably close to some of the "others of note" below. Keep that in mind if information changes in the coming weeks or you feel strongly about one of them in particular.
Others of note, broken into groups
Maybe on the Opening Day roster, but also could be called up soon, with clear ROY upside
Jackson Merrill, SS/OF, Padres
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers
Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays
You could make an easy case for any of these players to be on my top-15 list, as they would be if I knew they'd open the season on the big league roster. Merrill has the best chance. Caminero has the highest upside with legit 40-HR upside, but he's blocked a bit by a deep Tampa Bay infield corps. Skenes might be a top-15 SP in the game by the end of the season and could be up at midseason, but I'm not sure how Pittsburgh plans to use him yet.
Probably on the Opening Day roster/lineup, but with more modest fantasy upside
Brayan Rocchio, SS, Guardians
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians
Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs
Joey Ortiz, 3B, Brewers
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Cubs
Keaton Winn, RHP, Giants
Yuki Matsui, LHP, Padres
All of these guys are good bets to get a lot of playing time and give you a solid return, but probably won't put up ROY-type seasons.
Decent shot to make the Opening Day roster, but come with hit risk
Marco Luciano, SS, Giants
Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Red Sox
These two could be terrible and not spend much time in the big leagues, or put up ROY-type seasons, so just know what you're getting into. Rafaela is an electric athlete with lots of real-world value tied up in his defense, but some power/speed upside. Luciano could hit 30 homers and play a decent shortstop, or he could swing through too many fastballs, hit .200 and get optioned.