Fantasy hockey draft tips: Breakout defensemen picks for 2024-25

Using the same exercise as the forwards, if we take all defensemen who debuted in or after the 2009-10 season, are at least 25.7 years old (added a year compared to forwards) and have at least 100 games of NHL experience, we will find the average age and experience for when these players broke onto the fantasy scene.

Same as the forwards, we are using a 30-game rolling average of at least 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to determine a "breakout" occurred.

The range in this case is broader than it was with the forwards. As with the forwards, there are those players who "broke out" instantly, like Charlie McAvoy, Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. But the other end of the spectrum is more extreme, with Erik Gudbranson bringing up the rear having played 726 NHL games before he had a 30-game rolling average of 1.7 FPPG at almost 32 years old. There were 83 total defenders to use to find the averages.

And that's how we got the target above: 24 years and 105 days old, and 132 NHL games.

So, same as the forwards, we'll give leeway of a year for the age (so 25 years and 105 days is the cutoff) and a range of 40 games either side of the average of 132 (so 92 to 172).

The age cutoff brings us a list of 104 defensemen. Off the top, we can take out established fantasy assets, which includes Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, Moritz Seider, Jake Sanderson, Kaiden Guhle and Brock Faber.

Of the remaining 96, if we apply the games-played filter (between 92 and 172), we are left with 20 defenders.

But, like the forwards, we want to run our 30-game rolling average at them to see if they've already eclipsed 1.7 FPPG for a sustained time. That will allow us to further drill down on breakout candidates.

Of the 20, Cam York, Bowen Byram, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson, Thomas Harley, Jacob Bernard-Docker and Justin Barron have already managed a 30-game run of 1.7 FPPG.

The breakouts

That leaves us with 13 defensemen to analyze for breakout potential. All of them meet these criteria:

• Each defender is younger than 25 years and 105 days old.

• They have are below 1.7 FPPG for their career so far.

• They have at least 92 games of NHL experience, but fewer than 172.

• They have not had a sustained run of 30 games in which they averaged 1.7 FPPG or better.

Here they are, presented in order of FPPG from last season with their age as of Sept 1, 2024, and their NHL experience.

Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (1.39 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 97 games played): He's already playing top-pairing minutes with Seth Jones, it's just that the Hawks weren't good enough for him to earn fantasy value. Perhaps with their new additions up front and an ever-improving Connor Bedard, Vlasic can get those extra stats this season.

Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (1.3 FPPG, 22.4 years old, 147 games played): Like the Sabres, the Flyers boast multiple defenders under consideration here, with Cam York being filtered out for already breaking out. Drysdale figures to get at least a little overshadowed by York for the offense still, but if the offense takes a step forward with Matvei Michkov in town, there might be enough to go around for the second pairing.

Kevin Bahl, D, Calgary Flames (1.04 FPPG, 24.2 years old, 148 games played): The return in the Jacob Markstrom trade likely has a top-four D spot lined up for him with the Flames. That means he'll get enough minutes to make a fantasy mark so long as he keeps earning them. As long as you don't set expectations too high, Bahl could be serviceable on deeper rosters this season.

Philip Broberg, D, St. Louis Blues (0.71 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 101 games played): Coming to the Blues via offer sheet, Broberg has some yet-to-be-displayed offensive chops to his game that may get coaxed out in his new surroundings. By no means is Justin Faulk irreplaceable on the top power-play unit and the second unit might even be a free-for-all in the preseason between Scott Perunovich and Broberg for the job now that Torey Krug is out for the season.

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Going off the books

Yes, that was only four of the 13 defenders that met all of our criteria. Trouble is, the remaining nine don't pass the eye test for various reasons, mostly depth-chart-related. They are listed below. Before we get there, here are a couple of handpicked breakout defenders that didn't meet the games-played threshold.

Olen Zellweger, D, Anaheim Ducks (1.38 FPPG, 21.0 years old, 26 games played): Pavel Mintyukov had the longer showcase last season, but Zellweger upstaged him by the end. Depending on how training camp and the preseason go, he may open the season as their power play quarterback.

Simon Edvinsson, D, Detroit Red Wings (1.21 FPPG, 21.6 years old, 25 games played): With minimal ice time and minimal role, Edvinsson dished out 26 hits and blocked 25 shots in 16 games last season. He is the real deal when it comes to physical defenders. He should open on the second pairing and get plenty of ice time to pile up fantasy points.

The probably not breakouts

Unfortunately, nine of our 13 final defenders look like they still face too steep a climb to fantasy glory for the coming campaign.