Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Pitchers to stream Saturday

• The Cleveland Guardians will send Joey Cantillo to the hill on Saturday. Cantillo is the day's top streamer as the Guardians are tied for the division lead. Cantillo boasts a 1.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his past six outings, spanning 34 innings. He'd face a watered-down Texas Rangers lineup missing Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

• Choosing a starter on a team playing out the string facing a team with the playoffs on the line is against the grain. Even so, Eury Perez's strikeout upside warrants streaming consideration when the Miami Marlins host the New York Mets. The earliest the Mets can clinch the final National League wild card is Saturday, so they'll be playing their regulars. Still, with a 25.9% strikeout rate, Perez is in play.

• Nothing is on the line when the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Atlanta Braves, but with a strong effort, Pirates rookie Bubba Chandler can head into the offseason on a high note. The 22-year-old right-hander fanned 13 with no walks over his past two starts, spanning 11 innings.

Pitchers to avoid Saturday

• Playoff-bound teams will usually truncate the outings of their starting pitchers over the final weekend. They want the hurler to stay sharp but don't want to risk injury. Some examples Saturday are Ranger Suarez (Philadelphia Phillies), Michael King (San Diego Padres), Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) and Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners).

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Washington Nationals pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.

San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.68 ERA in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.68 ERA in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.39 ERA in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.09 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream Saturday

• The Guardians host the Rangers, with the AL Central still up for grabs. The Guardians hold the tiebreaker over the Detroit Tigers, so the Guardians control their own playoff destiny. The earliest they can clinch is Saturday, so they'll play their best against Merrill Kelly. Steven Kwan, George Valera, Kyle Manzardo, Bo Naylor and CJ Kayfus all enjoy the platoon edge on the veteran righty.

Hitters to avoid Saturday

• If the Boston Red Sox have secured a playoff berth, look for them to bench some of their regulars. Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Nathaniel Lowe and Ceddanne Rafaela might sit out, or at best be lifted after an at-bat or two.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Los Angeles Dodgers batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners batters vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)

Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Doyle has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .278 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .308 Expected wOBA, based on my interpretation of Statcast data.

Ezequiel Tovar | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)

Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.27 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to left field at 11.5-mph in this game, the second-best of the day for bats.

Nolan Gorman | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)

Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.25 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 83 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Cam Schlittler | UNDER 6.5 K (-140)

Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Schlittler has had some good luck with his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.23 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.53 -- a 0.69 K/9 discrepancy.

Luis Morales | OVER 3.5 K (+110)

Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.86 EV
One reason to bet this: Morales's 96.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 96th percentile among all starters.

Logan Gilbert | OVER 6.5 K (-115)

Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.02 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the third-most suitable pitching conditions of the day.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rangers @ Guardians | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $4.30 EV

Orioles @ Yankees | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $3.71 EV

Mets @ Marlins | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $2.56 EV