Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Shane Baz is generating some optimism for next season down the stretch with a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over his past five games, which includes a rough outing against the Chicago Cubs. Most encouraging is 30 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings over this span. The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are playing out the string, but Baz likely wants to end the season on a high note.
The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres have clinched playoff berths but still have something on the line in their matchup in Petco Park. The Padres are trying to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers for NL West supremacy, and the Brewers are trying to lock down the NL's best record. A solid effort from Quinn Priester cements his status in the playoff rotation, especially with Brandon Woodruff questionable for the NLDS. Priester is on a roll with a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his past six efforts, supported by 33 punch outs over 33 2/3 stanzas. The Padres' lineup will be shorthanded with Fernando Tatis Jr. out with an illness.
Stephen Kolek is making his case to be in the Kansas City Royals' 2026 rotation with five straight quality starts, missing a sixth by just one out. That said, while his 1.91 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over that span appear impressive, he fanned just 21 batters in 33 frames. Allowing just one homer with only six walks minimized damage. Kolek is in a great spot to pad his punch outs more than usual with a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels and the lineup leading the league in strikeouts.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
A strong case can be made for Jack Flaherty to step up in the crucial matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. He has pitched well lately with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his past four games, but only 17 strikeouts in 20 innings with a generous nine walks indicate the veteran has enjoyed a bit of recent good fortune. Even if he pitches well against the Guardians, Flaherty faces the lineup with the league's lowest strikeout rate, tempering fantasy potential. A lot more can go wrong than right in this AL Central encounter.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.08 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.19 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.08 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.07 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Andrew Alvarez's 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to open his career seem impressive, but he fanned only 15 while issuing seven free passes in his inaugural 19 frames. The rookie left-hander is vulnerable, and the Atlanta Braves lineup sports a few right-handed batters in a position to benefit. Ha-Seong Kim, Marcell Ozuna and Nacho Alvarez Jr. lead the list.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Astros LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves RHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .339 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .332 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .260 wOBA in this matchup.
Twins RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Alec Burleson | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.99 EV
One reason to bet this: Ranked in the 79th percentile, Burleson has one of the highest average exit velocities in Major League Baseball this year (91.1 mph).
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Vargas has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the last week.
Jordan Walker | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Walker has been unlucky this year, posting a .260 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .311 -- a .051 deviation.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Luis Castillo | OVER 6.5 K (-115)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.03 EV
One reason to bet this: This contest is forecasted to have the second-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Yusei Kikuchi | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.81 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system projects Angel Stadium as the 10th-best park in the league for strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez | UNDER 3.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.85 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games today at 85 degrees.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Twins @ Rangers | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $5.95 EV
Royals @ Angels | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $3.62 EV
Rockies @ Mariners | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $4.04 EV
