Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

Pitchers to stream Thursday

• Four of Parker Messick's first six career outings have been quality starts, and the Cleveland Guardians are 4-2 when he takes the hill. On Thursday, Messick will start the biggest game of his fledgling career at home against the Detroit Tigers. The clubs are neck-and-neck in the AL Central heading into the finale of their three-game set. Messick's 2.08 ERA is artificially low, but 31 strikeouts to just five walks in his inaugural 34 2/3 innings is solid. The Tigers hit left-handers well, but Messick's recent success, home-field advantage and the importance of the game land the lefty in streaming territory.

• Nick Lodolo's rostership is a few ticks above the usual 50% cutoff, but considering the Cincinnati Reds are battling for a playoff spot and the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing out the string, the Reds lefty warrants a streaming nod. Lodolo isn't excelling down the stretch, but his 23.8% strikeout rate is above average, and his 4.6% walk rate is well below the norm. The Pirates offense totes the third-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate versus lefties into the Great American Ballpark.

• After an early September demotion to the bullpen, Michael Lorenzen re-entered the Kansas City Royals rotation and stifled the Toronto Blue Jays, limiting the AL East leaders to one run over 7 2/3 innings. Lorenzen's final start of the season is a juicy matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. Lorenzen isn't known for missing bats, but the Angels fan at the league's highest pace versus right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid Thursday

• Thursday presents a challenging set of streamers. The rule of thumb is to prioritize starters pitching in a meaningful game for their team. Brayan Bello, who takes the hill for the Boston Red Sox in their road tilt with the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have punched their postseason ticket, but they're still trying to lock down the AL East along with the No. 1 seed. The Red Sox control their wild card destiny but have not secured a playoff berth. Bello is in a rut, losing his last two outings. More importantly, even when on, the righty has not dominant, posting a pedestrian 17.9% strikeout rate, and the Blue Jays fan at one of the lowest clips in the league. This section is usually reserved for pitchers rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues, but since Bello is the slate's top ranked streamer, he merits a warning to avoid.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 2.88 ERA in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.77 ERA in this matchup.

New York Yankees pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.45 ERA in this matchup.

Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.30 ERA in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.84 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream Thursday

• Braxton Ashcraft often gets lost in the shuffle of the young Pirates pitchers, but he's wrapping up an encouraging freshman season. That said, the 25-year-old righty's workload has been tempered down the stretch, so the Reds will also face a weak Pirates bullpen for much of their NL Central matchup. TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and Tyler Stephenson are all in play to fortify a lineup on a day with just 12 games on the docket.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Houston Astros LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.

Athletics LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Francisco Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.24 EV
One reason to bet this: Alvarez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games. Compare his 99.9-mph average over the past week to his season-long average of 96.5 mph.

Francisco Lindor | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Lindor's launch angle of late (18.1 degrees over the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 14.5- degree season-long figure.

Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.22 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last week, McLain's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his overall 2025 rate of 7.8% to 37.5%.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Braxton Ashcraft | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Ashcraft has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts, notching a 9.09 K/9, despite my projections estimating his true-talent level to be 8.60 -- a 0.49 K/9 deviation.

Drew Rasmussen | OVER 3.5 K (-155)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.25 EV
One reason to bet this: It's likely that we will see a "pitcher's umpire" (Adam Hamari) in charge of the strike zone today.

Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.03 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the team with the fifth-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Chicago Cubs, with a 21.6 underlying K%.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

White Sox @ Yankees | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $3.86 EV

Mets @ Cubs | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 51% chance of RUN with a $3.57 EV

Dodgers @ D-Backs | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $2.13 EV