Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
After Jonah Tong impressed in his MLB debut with six strikeouts in five frames, yielding just one earned run, the 22-year-old right-hander gave up three home runs in the Great American Ballpark. However, they were the only three hits Tong allowed to the Cincinnati Reds, and he fanned six in six innings. His third outing is a home date with the Texas Rangers. Not only is Citi Field a favorable pitching venue, but the Rangers are without Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia.
After sputtering in early August, Mitch Keller has posted three straight solid efforts, including two quality starts. He punched out 20 with just two walks in 17 1/3 innings, recording a 2.60 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over that span. The Pittsburgh Pirates open a weekend set on the road against the Washington Nationals. Keller will experience a park downgrade, but he'll face lineup striking out more down the stretch.
Brady Singer's strong second half is helping to keep the Reds' wild-card aspirations alive. Singer is 6-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 52 strikeouts over his past 47 innings, spanning eight starts. Pitching in the Great American Ballpark has not affected Singer, so he should be able to handle the Athletics in Sutter Health Park.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
After issuing only nine free passes over his first 30 innings this season, Hurston Waldrep walked nine in his next 10 2/3 innings. The extra base runners have not been an issue yet, but if he doesn't improve his control, Waldrep's ERA will suffer. The Atlanta Braves host the Houston Astros this weekend with Waldrep tabbed for the opener. The Astros aren't especially patient, but they will accept bases on balls when given the opportunity and have the firepower to take advantage.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.42 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.47 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.20 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.09 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
The Milwaukee Brewers' pitching carried them to the best record in the league, but lately their offense has picked up the pace. It's a lineup more dependent on moving the line than clearing the fence, so facing a pitch-to-contact type like Andre Pallante is an advantage. The Brewers host Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals in hitter-friendly American Family Field. The chief beneficiaries are Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn, Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick and Isaac Collins.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Athletics LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .351 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Ozuna grades out in the 75th percentile for hitting ability this year per my version of expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.
Michael Harris II | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts this game for the hottest weather (83 degrees) on today's schedule.
Hunter Goodman | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to his seasonal average of 16.9 degrees, Goodman has significantly improved his launch angle of late, with a 24.0-degree angle over the past seven days.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Trevor Rogers | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.35 EV
One reason to bet this: The Toronto Blue Jays (projected 18.1 K%) are forecast to have the least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on today's slate.
JP Sears | OVER 3.5 K (-155)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.85 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 5 MLB ballpark for boosting strikeouts, per my projections, is Petco Park.
Tarik Skubal | OVER 7.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Skubal's fastball spin rate has spiked 121 rpm this season (2,347 rpm) over where it was last year (2,226 rpm).
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Astros @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $11.56 EV
Cardinals @ Brewers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $7.66 EV
Reds @ Athletics | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $5.44 EV
