Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream Wednesday
Eury Perez was initially scheduled to take the hill Thursday, but the Miami Marlins decided to give their rotation an extra day, pushing the righty to Wednesday. He has struggled down the stretch with a high 8.53 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over his past five outings, spanning only 24 1/3 innings. He's been especially ineffective in his past two efforts, begging the question of whether he's healthy. His velocity, spin rate and pitch mix don't set off any alarms, but his command and control have wavered. He's also been victimized by a high BABIP and HR/FB% over his prior pair of starts. Assuming he's not hiding an injury, Perez is in a good spot to rebound when the Marlins host the Washington Nationals. He'll square off with a lineup vulnerable to strikeouts. Before his recent rough stretch, Perez was dominant.
Jose Soriano was enjoying a solid second half before being hit hard by the Athletics in his last outing. Before that, he posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the break, but he surrendered eight runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last outing. Soriano is in a favorable spot to rebound when the Los Angeles Angels host the Minnesota Twins, sporting the lineup with the sixth-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers over the past month.
Pitchers to avoid Wednesday
Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent of late. Over his past six outings, his ERA is 6.68 with a 1.48 WHIP, but he had two good starts in that stretch, including one with seven shutout innings on August 18. Hoping for the good version is defensible against lesser lineups, but with the Detroit Tigers in the Bronx against the potent New York Yankees, it's best to avoid the veteran righty.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.69 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: F | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.85 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.02 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Wednesday
It's beginning to cool down in Sacramento, but Sutter Health Park remains one of the better hitting venues. It's not as favorable as Fenway Park, but the Boston Red Sox still line up for a productive evening against the Athletics and rookie Mason Barnett. New leadoff hitter Masataka Yoshida leads the way, along with Trevor Story, Nathaniel Lowe and Ceddanne Rafaela.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Cubs LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .264 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz's 19.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 99th percentile this year.
Jordan Beck | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Placing in the 82nd percentile, the hardest ball Beck has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.8 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.37 EV
One reason to bet this: McLain has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 16.4 degrees angle is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (84th percentile).
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Mason Barnett | UNDER 4.5 K (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.70 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to left field at 8.1 mph in this contest, the third-best of the day for bats.
Tyler Wells | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Wells has averaged 81.2 adjusted pitches per game started this year, grading out in the 18th percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodriguez's 91.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile among all SPs.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Dodgers | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $6.29 EV
Twins @ Angels | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.17 EV
Cardinals @ Mariners | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $1.34 EV
