Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Luis Severino threw only 61 pitches in his first game back from missing nearly a month with an oblique strain, but it was enough to get through five scoreless frames though he wasn't involved in the decision in the St. Louis Cardinals' 2-1 win over the Athletics. Before getting hurt, the righty won his prior four starts. He's in a favorable spot to pick up another victory with a road date against the Los Angeles Angels. Heading into Saturday's action, the Athletics are 24-20 since the break. Meanwhile, the Angels are 19-26.
The Boston Red Sox have been unable to take full advantage of a relatively easy early September schedule, though Brayan Bello has done his part. The club has won his past four outings and he has picked up three wins along the way. He has pitched at least six frames in 15 of his 25 efforts, yielding no more than three runs in each (14 quality starts). Bello will take the hill in the desert against a still productive Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, even though they dealt their starting corner infielders at the trade deadline.
Clayton Kershaw posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his past six starts, and that includes a subpar effort against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out. He's no longer a dominant force, but the lefty limits walks and keeps the ball in the yard. These traits will come in handy with the Los Angeles Dodgers wrapping up a road seat with the Baltimore Orioles. Also in his favor is squaring off with the offense sporting the 10th-worst wOBA and eighth-highest strikeout rate facing lefties.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Given that Sunday is the midpoint of the first week of ESPN playoffs, so it isn't necessary to be extra careful about matchups, there are four starting pitchers rostered in over 50% of ESPN leagues with unfavorable matchups. The first is Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins visiting the Kansas City Royals. Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres visiting the Colorado Rockies is risky, as is Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves hosting the Seattle Mariners. Lastly, be careful with Jacob Misiorowski when the Milwaukee Brewers close out a road set with the Pirates.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.21 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.67 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.17 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.56 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Patrick Corbin registered a 7.33 ERA and 1.67 WHIP spanning his past six outings, and that includes an eight-inning scoreless effort. The veteran lefty is vulnerable when the Texas Rangers entertain the Houston Astros. The visitors experience a park downgrade, but they still line up for a productive afternoon. Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz all enjoy the platoon advantage.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .372 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Jake Burger | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.56 EV
One reason to bet this: This year, the hardest ball Burger has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph, grading out in the 88th percentile.
Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Langford has been unlucky this year, putting up a .341 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .357 -- a .016 gap.
Josh Jung | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field has the eighth-shortest fences in MLB.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $36.20 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees PNC Park as the eighth-worst stadium in the majors for strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Riley Adams, the Nationals' expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch framer.
Tanner Gordon | UNDER 2.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.15 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, the team with the second-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Padres, with an 18.3 underlying K%.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Twins @ Royals | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $2.54 EV
Red Sox @ D-Backs | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.07 EV
