Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream Saturday
After posting a 9.32 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in his first six starts coming out of the break, Shane Baz recorded a quality start in each of his past two outings. While his walk rate was a bit high during the struggle, he was victimized by a .385 BABIP and 25.7% home run rate over that stretch. He settled down with 13 punchouts and only four free passes with no homers allowed over his last 12 stanzas. Strikeouts could be hard to come by when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians, but a third straight quality start is attainable facing one of the less potent lineups in the league.
Luis Garcia is set for his second start of the season after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He logged a quality start in his debut, striking out six with no walks, but the Houston Astros righty allowed two homers to the Los Angeles Angels. Next up is a road date with the Texas Rangers. One-year park factors are suspect, but Globe Life Park is playing extremely pitcher-friendly this season, and the Rangers are missing Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Evan Carter and perhaps Adolis Garcia.
Lucas Giolito is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last seven outings, registering a quality start in each of his prior two efforts. The Boston Red Sox are in the desert for an interleague set with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite thinning their lineup at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks still sport an above-average lineup, but Giolito has stepped up his game down the stretch.
Pitcher to avoid Saturday
Since being roughed up in his debut in early August, Luis Gil posted a 2.42 ERA, albeit with a high 1.46 WHIP due to 15 walks in 26 innings. However, he fanned 26 while allowing only two homers in that span, and in his last outing, Gil issued just two free passes in 5⅔ innings while racking up seven punchouts. On tap is his biggest challenge so far when he faces the Toronto Blue Jays in the Bronx. Even though Gil is highly ranked on Saturday's pitching chart, the Blue Jays tote a potent offense into Yankee Stadium. It's best to look elsewhere for a streaming option.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.38 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.65 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.86 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.29 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.70 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.62 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Saturday
Brad Lord appears to be running out of gas for the Washington Nationals. After recording a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.22 over his first 91 innings, he has pitched to a 12.08 ERA and 2.05 WHIP spanning his last three efforts, fueled by surrendering six walks and four homers in only 12⅓ innings. The Chicago Cubs are poised to take advantage when Lord takes the hill at Wrigley Field. Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Matt Shaw are the primary beneficiaries.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .368 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Padres pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .378 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .256 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Andy Pages | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.92 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the eighth-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.
Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Hernandez has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the leagues shallowest RF fences today.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 5.5 K (+120)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.18 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 1.94 difference between Woodruff's 11.07 K/9 and his 9.12 estimated true talent K/9 (via projections), its safe to say hes been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see worse results in future games.
Jonah Tong | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Nic Lentz profiles as a "hitters umpire" and is anticipated to be behind the plate in this game.
Trevor Rogers | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The Dodgers have six hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers today.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Nationals @ Cubs | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $6.63 EV
Padres @ Rockies | YRFI (-160)
Projection: 64% chance of RUN with a $5.20 EV
Mariners @ Braves | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $0.84 EV
