Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

Pitchers to stream Tuesday

• Clayton Kershaw won all five of his August starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 28⅔ innings. He struck out only 19, but Kershaw walked just three while allowing one long ball. The veteran lefty is in a great spot to continue rolling in September with a road game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hosts sport the third-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill.

• Six homers in 24 August innings bloated Yu Darvish's ERA to 4.88. His 0.88 WHIP tells a different story, though he benefited from a .167 BABIP. The best indicators in small samples are strikeout and walk rates, and Darvish's 19.7% K-BB% was a respectable 29th out of the 112 pitchers compiling at least 24 innings last month. The San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been more productive lately, but for the season, they sport the fifth-worst road wOBA versus right-handers.

• Luis Severino hasn't fared as poorly at home as the surface stats suggest, but that's a discussion for another day because the Athletics visit the struggling St. Louis Cardinals. Over the past month, the Cardinals recorded the second-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate facing righties.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.88 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Giants hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.66 ERA in this matchup.

San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.32 ERA in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Mariners hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream Tuesday

• Cade Cavalli recorded a 5.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in August, and that includes 11 scoreless frames in two of his five starts. The Miami Marlins visit the Washington Nationals, and Miami hopes to face the more vulnerable version of Cavalli. In a hypothetical September-only league, Marlins' rookies Agustin Ramirez and Jakob Marsee would be clear early-to-mid-round draft picks, but their current ESPN rosterships are 51.1% and 29.7%, respectively.

• Slade Cecconi registered two consecutive quality starts, though he fanned only seven while surrendering three homers in 12 frames. That's a bad combination for the Cleveland Guardians' road date with the Boston Red Sox. Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, Nathaniel Lowe and Ceddanne Rafaela all line up for a productive evening in Fenway Park.

Today's best matchups for hitters

San Francisco Giants batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors, including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring in the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme groundball hitters like Alvarez actually tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.

Jurickson Profar | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Profar pulls many of his flyballs (34.4%, 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's sixth-shallowest LF fences.

Ozzie Albies | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1%, 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the sixth-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.71 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park profiles as the No. 25 field in MLB for strikeouts, per my projections.

Michael Lorenzen | OVER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.77 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Los Angeles Angels (with a 28.7 underlying K%).

Jose Berrios | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Berrios' fastball velocity has decreased this season (91.5 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Braves @ Cubs | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.59 EV

Marlins @ Nationals | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $0.66 EV