Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream Saturday
Cristian Javier managed to throw only three innings in his last start as he was under the weather. The Houston Astros monitored him this week and he's been cleared to take the mound in Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles. It will be Javier's third start after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He's been effective, fanning seven (with only two walks) over eight frames. The Orioles lineup is still dangerous, but they have traded away key cogs Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn and are missing Adley Rutschman and Tyler O'Neill, both on the IL.
Cade Horton's last start was cut short due to a blister issue, but it's now healed. He'll take the mound for the Chicago Cubs' road date with the Los Angeles Angels. After beginning his career with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his initial nine outings, the rookie has since posted a 1.27 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, spanning eight appearances and 42 2/3 innings. Horton has been fortunate, but he's also kept the ball in the yard, masking a low strikeout total. The Angels are a favorable matchup, since they strike out a lot. They also sport a below-average HR rate.
After stringing together three straight quality starts, Jeffrey Springs has sputtered in his last two outings, yielding nine runs in just eight total innings. With the Athletics visiting the Seattle Mariners, the lefty is in a great spot to rebound. Not only is Springs benefiting from a huge park swing with T-Mobile Park (one of the best pitching venues in the league), but the Mariners offense has fanned at a 30.03% clip over the past month with a lefty on the hill, fueling the 10th-lowest wOBA over that stretch.
Pitchers to avoid Saturday
Clay Holmes ended a string of subpar efforts at last Sunday's Little League Classic, but he's still risky when the New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves at hitter-friendly Truist Park. Even including his last solid outing, Holmes post-break ERA is still a not-so-great 4.88 with a 1.66 WHIP. The Braves lineup will be without Austin Riley (season-ending surgery), but their offense been above average for the past month, spurred by a surging Michael Harris II.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.84 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.86 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.90 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.97 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.89 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Saturday
Mitchell Parker's 5.83 ERA is the second worst among qualified starters and it's not a result of bad luck. His 5.12 xFIP is the poorest in the league. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals with the left-hander taking the hill at Citizens Bank Park. With the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays both getting a rare Saturday off, the Phillies are a great target for those in need of hitters to fill any holes. Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are the chief options, with Harrison Bader, Edmundo Sosa and Weston Wilson being deep-league candidates.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Chicago White Sox LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you could win some and you would lose some, but in the end you could expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Austin Wells | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Despite posting a .295 wOBA this year, my projections believe Wells has experienced some negative variance given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.
Austin Hays | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Hays' average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (25 degrees in the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 16.3 degrees seasonal figure.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Rooker's launch angle lately (23.1 degrees over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 16 degrees seasonal figure.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Mick Abel | UNDER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.29 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the worst field in the majors for strikeouts.
Victor Mederos | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.34 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is expected to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among games scheduled today.
Will Warren | UNDER 5.5 K (-120)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.13 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the second-hottest temperature on the slate, at 83 degrees.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Cubs @ Angels | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $1.56 EV
Blue Jays @ Marlins | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.84 EV
Giants @ Brewers | NRFI (-150)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN with a $0.50 EV
