Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

Pitchers to stream on Friday

• Since the break, Zebby Matthews has fanned 32 with just five walks in 25 innings. However, he's been victimized by a .364 BABIP and 16.7% HR/FB in that span. This is not to imply that his bloated 5.04 ERA is all bad luck, but his 24.2% K-BB% and 3.10 xFIP in that stretch demonstrates he's pitched better than it appears. The Minnesota Twins have a road date with the Chicago White Sox, giving Matthews a strong chance of improving his ERA, facing the lineup with the second lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.

• Ben Brown has pitched better than the numbers indicate since being called up just after the break. His ERA in 19 2/3 innings is 5.03, but the corresponding 3.23 xFIP is more optimistic as he's been snake bit with a 63.2% left on base mark. Brown was throwing a few more changeups in his latest stint, but he didn't use any in his last outing. Developing a third pitch could be the difference between Brown succeeding as a starter or being transitioned to the bullpen. Friday will be interesting since the Chicago Cubs visit the Los Angeles Angels who sport the third lowest wOBA in the league against changeups.

• Jose Quintana is enjoying a strong month with a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over four August starts. He's in a favorable spot to keep rolling when the Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants. The veteran lefty squares off with the lineup sporting the lowest wOBA in MLB facing southpaws. Additionally, Quintana was slated to be opposed by Logan Webb, but the Giants are giving their ace an extra day of rest and calling up Carson Whisenhunt for the outing.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

• There is no definitive answer whether to start a pitcher returning from the IL; it's a matter of risk tolerance. On Friday, two historically effective starters are taking the hill after recovering from an injury, including Shane Bieber making his 2025 debut. The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline to fortify their playoff run. The righty has been out since April 2024 as he's been recovering from Tommy John surgery. Bieber recorded a 1.86 ERA and .86 WHIP with 37 strikeouts spanning 29 innings over three levels while on rehab. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his final outing, punching out four with no walks. Even so, he's risky when he takes the hill in loanDepot Park against a pesky Miami Marlins squad.

• Lance McCullers Jr. is the other returning hurler as he's been out over a month with a blister. McCullers will toe the rubber in Camden Yards when the Houston Astros face the Baltimore Orioles. McCullers struck out five over five stanzas in his only rehab start, but he's also risky.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.83 ERA in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.88 ERA in this matchup.

New York Yankees pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.20 ERA in this matchup.

Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.

New York Mets pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Friday

• Friday presents a rare opportunity to stream Pittsburgh Pirates hitters when the club welcomes Antonio Senzatela and the Colorado Rockies to PNC Park. It's a small sample, but Senzatela's 7.04 road ERA is worse than his 6.97 home mark. The takeaway is Senzatela is worth targeting, regardless of locale. Tommy Pham, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds are the primary candidates.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Athletics RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .254 wOBA in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Ryan Jeffers | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Jeffers' recent launch angle (32.3 degrees over the last seven days) is significantly better than his 16.2 degrees season-to-date launch angle.

Coby Mayo | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.46 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the sixth-best ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.

Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.82 EV
One reason to bet this: As it relates to his home runs, Vargas has had some very poor luck this year. His 16.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than my projected expected HR/600 of 20.4.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Nolan McLean | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.24 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is forecast to have the most humid conditions on the slate (87%). There is a small, but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.

Zebby Matthews | UNDER 5.5 K (-105)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.25 EV
One reason to bet this: The top field in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Guaranteed Rate Field.

Cade Povich | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.97 EV
One reason to bet this: The Houston Astros (19.9 K%, according to my projections) expect to have the fourth-least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Mets @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $7.50 EV

Blue Jays @ Marlins | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $4.84 EV

Royals @ Tigers | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.76 EV