Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream Sunday
Jacob Lopez is in contention for Pitcher of the Month in August, as he's sporting a 0.70 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 25⅔ innings. The Athletics' southpaw has a chance to strengthen his case with a road date in Seattle. Not only will the game be in the best pitching venue in the league, but he'll face the lineup with the second-highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill.
Gavin Williams has registered quality starts in five of six starts since the break, compiling a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in that span, fueled by 37 punchouts in 36 frames. The Cleveland Guardians close out a weekend set in Arlington against a struggling Texas Rangers offense that will be without Evan Carter, Jake Burger (both on the IL) and Marcus Semien, who is slated to be examined after he fouled a ball off his foot Thursday.
Ryan Pepiot is in a rut, though his 4.03 xFIP since the break indicates that he has been better than his actual 5.88 ERA in that span. A high 20.0% HR/FB rate is the culprit, leading to eight homers in his prior 33⅔ stanzas. But the Tampa Bay Rays end the fantasy week with a home date against a St. Louis Cardinals team toting the second-lowest home run rate facing right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid Sunday
Seth Lugo has been an automatic start for much of the past two seasons. He's not dominant, but the veteran limits traffic and usually keeps the ball in the yard. However, he's had an issue with home runs over the second half, surrendering two long balls in six of his past eight efforts. The Kansas City Royals wrap up an AL Central series in Motown against the Detroit Tigers. It's best to avoid Lugo since he's facing the offense with the 10th-highest home run rate against righties over the past month.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.90 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.95 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.47 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.25 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.04 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Sunday
A pair of NL East offenses line up for productive games on Sunday. The New York Mets have a road date with Bryce Elder and the Atlanta Braves, benefiting Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Cedric Mullins. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are in Anaheim against Kyle Hendricks and the Los Angeles Angels. Carson Kelly, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson and Matt Shaw are the primary targets.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .339 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
Today's top home run prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on Statcast data, Grisham ranks in the 81st percentile for offensive ability via my projections' version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .346.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Trevor Rogers | UNDER 4.5 K (Even)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.32 EV
One reason to bet this: The Houston Astros have nine hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Rogers in this game.
Jameson Taillon | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.49 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 87 degrees.
Yoendrys Gomez | UNDER 4.5 K (Even)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.10 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the worst park in baseball for strikeouts.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Pirates | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $1.63 EV
Athletics @ Mariners | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $0.32 EV
