Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Sean Manaea tied his season high with seven strikeouts in his last outing. However, he also surrendered two homers and four runs in five frames. The long ball has been an issue for the lefty since he made his 2025 debut in mid-July, having given up six home runs in only 32 frames. On Thursday, however, the New York Mets visit a Washington Nationals squad that sport the fourth-lowest home run rate in the league.
Luis Gil struggled in his first start back after missing the first four months, but he rebounded with a pair of effective outings, yielding just three runs over 10 2/3 combined innings while fanning 11. Next up is a home date with a Boston Red Sox. Away from Fenway Park, the Red Sox offense is below average, fueled by a 26% strikeout rate facing right-handers, the third-highest mark in the league.
Michael Lorenzen carries more appeal in points leagues as opposed to category scoring since his main asset is pitching deep into games, and innings are key to points league scoring. He lines up for another lengthy outing when the Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers. The visitors tote one of the less potent lineups with a righty on the hill, and Lorenzen should enjoy some run support with Patrick Corbin taking the hill for the Rangers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.57 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.75 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.91 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.33 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.80 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.12 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Any time the Colorado Rockies are at home, Coors Field is an obvious target for hitters to stream. In the name of avoiding the low-hanging fruit, the assumption is fantasy managers know to look at Rockies and their opposition, so alternate choices are provided. However, with only nine games on the ledger, let's emphasize the candidates from the Los Angeles Dodgers when they face Chase Dollander, namely Andy Pages, Michael Conforto and Alex Freeland.
Hitters to avoid on Thursday
It's another abbreviated Thursday slate where looking for stolen bases is a common play. One of the strategies has been to avoid teams playing the Royals, and that is still the case. Opposing teams have stolen just three bases against the Royals over the past month, the lowest number in the league. Be wary of the Rangers' Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford running on Thursday.
The Baltimore Orioles have also done a solid job defending the running game over the past month, with six caught stealing in 11 attempts. The Houston Astros don't run much, but Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve and Jesus Sanchez have a tad less allure since they aren't as likely to be given the green light.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .371 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .372 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.59 EV
One reason to bet this: For the season, Grisham grades out in the 84th percentile for offensive skills via my projected version of expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .351.
Hunter Goodman | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Coors Field ranks as the No. 5 ballpark in MLB for right-handed home runs, per my projections.
Gunnar Henderson | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has increased of late, rising from 11.1% for the season to 19.5% over the last two weeks.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Sonny Gray | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.29 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the second-highest level of the day at 86 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Michael Lorenzen | UNDER 4.5 K (-165)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.64 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Luke Maile (the Royals' expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-160)
Projection: 64% chance of RUN with a $7.67 EV
Astros @ Orioles | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $4.84 EV
Rangers @ Royals | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $4.52 EV
