Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Many expected Noah Cameron to regress after the break, since his 2.31 ERA was not fully supported by his underlying metrics. Sure enough, Cameron's ERA rose to 4.14 over his last three post-break efforts, but one was against the Chicago Cubs and another facing the Toronto Blue Jays, two of the most potent lineups in the league. Even with the tough matchups, Cameron performed at a league average level. The Kansas City Royals rookie has a favorable opponent on Saturday, facing the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins offense is well below average, with a high strikeout rate facing left-handers.
Four of Charlie Morton's last five outings have been quality starts, including his Detroit Tigers debut against the Philadelphia Phillies in his prior effort. Even so, his walks have been high and is prone to the long ball, so the veteran remains a matchup play. On Saturday, Morton squares off with the Los Angeles Angels, with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league.
After one appearance as a long reliever, Nick Martinez is back in the Cincinnati Reds rotation with Nick Lodolo on the 15-day IL. In three starts after the break, Martinez posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 17 punchouts in 16 frames. He then threw 33 pitches in a 2 1/3 innings relief appearance, but he likely remains stretched out for Saturday's favorable matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are last in the league in runs per game.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
Michael King was off to a solid start to the season before being felled by right shoulder thoracic nerve impingement on May 18. After just one rehab appearance, he returns to the majors for a home date with the Boston Red Sox. King tossed 81 pitches in 3 1/3 innings with Triple-A El Paso last Sunday. He fanned five but also yielded six earned runs. Against a lesser opponent, it could be worth the risk, but the Red Sox sport one of the better lineups in the game.
Saturday's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Temperature: D+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.70 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.10 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.81 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.34 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.95 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Despite trading two of their best hitters, the Arizona Diamondbacks remain a productive lineup, in part because they're running more since sending Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners in separate deals. The club has a home tilt with Bradley Blalock and the Colorado Rockies. Not only is Blalock a vulnerable pitcher but the Rockies are one of the poorer teams at defending the running game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tyler Locklear, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are in play.
With a doubleheader in Truist Park, Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins batters carry extra allure. Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna, Jurickson Profar and Eli White have a chance to play two for the Braves. Meanwhile, Agustin Ramirez, Otto Lopez and Jakob Marsee are the main Marlins targets.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .257 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height in MLB.
Jahmai Jones | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park has the third-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.
Alejandro Kirk | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Kirk has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; with a 91.9-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph exit velocity.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Noah Cameron | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.42 EV
One reason to bet this: Target Field grades out as the No. 21 ballpark in the game for strikeouts, according to my projections.
Braxton Ashcraft | OVER 2.5 K (-150)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Segal profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in today's game.
Carson Whisenhunt | UNDER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.67 EV
One reason to bet this: Oracle Park is the No. 3 venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts.
Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Blue Jays @ Dodgers | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $3.83 EV
Athletics @ Orioles | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 49% chance of NO RUN with a $2.46 EV
Mets @ Brewers | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $2.48 EV
