Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
Every five or six days, Edward Cabrera's stats since his slow start are cited, and they keep getting better. Since May 20, only five pitchers logging at least 60 frames have a lower ERA than Cabrera's 2.06 mark during that span. His 3.36 xFIP is 18th best over that same stretch, so while he's been a little lucky, Cabrera has been a top-20 starting pitcher for well over two months. Next up is a road date with the Atlanta Braves and a below-average lineup missing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.
Chase Burns' last outing was at the 2025 MLB Speedway Classic, but he was limited to one inning after the game was suspended. He was off to a strong start with two punchouts. Despite the abbreviated appearance, The Cincinnati Reds gave Burns regular rest before Friday night's road affair with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The well-rested rookie faces the lineup averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB.
For the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging the second-most runs per game. However, avoiding opposing pitchers for the past month meant not facing the team averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game in the league over that stretch. The defending World Series champions can snap out of their rut at any time, so there is risk. That said, veteran Max Scherzer is finding his groove with two straight quality starts, featuring 15 strikeouts with no walks over 13 frames. On Friday's pitching rankings, Scherzer checks in as the top-ranked streamer when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Dodgers.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Kodai Senga has sputtered since the break, posting a bloated 8.25 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in three starts, covering only 12 frames. He fanned a respectable 12 hitters but issued 11 walks while yielding four homers. A road matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers is not the ideal opportunity to get back on track. The Brewers are averaging the second-most runs per game in the league since the clubs returned to action following the Midseason Classic.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.12 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: A | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.55 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.60 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.74 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.20 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.95 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Despite struggling in his 2025 debut last week, Kai-Wei Teng is slated to take the hill when the San Francisco Giants entertain the Washington Nationals. Additionally, the Giants depleted bullpen has pitched poorly since the trade deadline, setting up Nationals bats for a productive evening. Luis Garcia Jr., Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe, Brady House and Robert Hassell III are all in play as streaming hitters.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.96 EV
One reason to bet this: Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the No. 8 field in baseball for left-handed home runs, per my projections.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.16 EV
One reason to bet this: By putting up a .359 expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by my projections) this year, Rooker is positioned in the 90th percentile for offensive ability.
Coby Mayo | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Oriole Park at Camden Yards also ranks as the No. 8 venue in the game for right-handed home runs, per my projections.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Chase Burns | UNDER 7.5 K (-105)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.39 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks PNC Park as the fifth-worst field in the league for strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.70 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the second-highest level on the slate at 90 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Brown has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.65 K/9, despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 10.16. That's a 0.49 K/9 discrepancy.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Rays @ Mariners | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.85 EV
Blue Jays @ Dodgers | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $2.73 EV
Phillies @ Rangers | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.99 EV
