Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Since the break, Gavin Williams has a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and just five walks in 19 innings. The Cleveland Guardians wrap up a series in Citi Field against the New York Mets. The Mets are an average offense with a right-hander on the hill, but for the past month they're posted the third lowest wOBA in the league facing righties.
Shane Baz entered the break with four consecutive quality starts. However, he's sputtered in three efforts since the break, recording an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over his last 14 stanzas. That said, he fanned 17 with just six walks over that stretch as he's been victimized by a .419 BABIP and 52.6% left on base mark. Bas is in a favorable position to get back on track with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Los Angeles Angels, facing a below average lineup with the second highest strikeout rate in MLB versus right-handers.
Jeffrey Springs registered two straight quality starts, fanning 12 with just two free passes in those dozen frames. Expecting a third is aggressive, but the lefty has a favorable matchup with the Athletics on the road against the Washington Nationals. The home team has struggled all season versus southpaws, but for the last month they've been especially weak, checking in with the sixth highest strikeout rate and fifth lowest wOBA against left-handers over the past 30 days.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Each spring, a popular topic is bold predictions. Only a soothsayer would have called out Trevor Rogers as earning the trust of fantasy managers by being rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues over four months into the season. Rogers' solid 3.67 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA demonstrate that his 1.44 ERA isn't all smoke and mirrors, but he's due for a correction. A .185 BABIP and 84.6% left on base mark aren't sustainable. Regression is agnostic to the opponent, so avoiding Rogers on Wednesday isn't about running out of luck; it's because he fans only 22.9% of batters and the Philadelphia Phillies are a dangerous lineup, especially at home.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.39 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.59 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.26 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.19 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.04 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
The fortified San Diego Padres offense lines up for a productive Wednesday evening in the desert. The Arizona Diamondbacks elevated Anthony DeSclafani to the rotation to replace Merrill Kelly (traded to the Texas Rangers). DeSclafani isn't fully stretched out, and the Diamondbacks bullpen is decimated. Ramon Laureano, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets and Ryan O'Hearn are in play as streamers.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .384 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .378 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .363 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago White Sox batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Seiya Suzuki | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Suzuki has performed at a clip of 32.8 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 95th percentile for power, according to my projections.
William Contreras | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.39 EV
One reason to bet this: Despite posting a .323 wOBA this year, my projections believe Contreras has been unlucky, given the .028 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Robbie Ray | UNDER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Lance Barksdale, who profiles as a huge "hitters umpire," is scheduled to be calling pitches today.
Anthony DeSclafani | UNDER 3.5 K (-165)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.47 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Chase Field as the eighth-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez | OVER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Suarez and his 48.8 underlying FB% (via my projections) will be in a favorable position in this outing given the matchup of today's expected opposing lineup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet
Reds @ Cubs | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $4.06 EV
