Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Jose Soriano, as he surrendered five runs in consecutive outings before the respite. He emerged with three straight quality starts, sporting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 20 frames. With the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, Soriano is in a great spot to pick up in August where left off in July. The Rays are reeling, averaging the second fewest runs per game over the past month.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be deploying a six-man rotation, with Emmet Sheehan joining the group for Tuesday's road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Lately, Sheehan has been piggybacking with Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers offense is in a rut, averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB over the last month, but they'll snap out of it. The Cardinals are scoring the fourth-fewest runs per game for the last month, but they're less likely to rebound since they lack the power of the Dodgers.
Much has been made of Luis Severino's home 6.34 ERA compared to his 3.03 road mark. The truth is his ERA estimators at home are better than his road levels. On Tuesday, Severino will take the hill at Nationals Park. This recommendation isn't because Severino is on the road, but rather because it's a favorable matchup facing a strikeout-prone lineup.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.56 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.33 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.00 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.82 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
Ryan Bergert's indoctrination to the American League will be a challenge, as his first start since being acquired at the trade deadline by the Kansas City Royals will be in Fenway Park against the potent Boston Red Sox. Roman Anthony and Masataka Yoshida are the primary targets facing the rookie righty.
Hitters to avoid on Tuesday
A recurring theme has been to avoid base stealers facing the Kansas City Royals. While they are still one of the best clubs at defending the running game, the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago Cubs have done an even better job of limiting opposing steals over the past month. The Guardians play the New York Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday. Brandon Nimmo is a borderline fantasy starter whose recent steals have been useful, but his running could be curtailed in this series. The Cubs are hosting the Cincinnati Reds, another team that is active on the basepaths. Noelvi Marte and Matt McLain have both been aggressive lately, but they may slow down in Wrigley Field.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .380 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .379 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago White Sox RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .253 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Pete Alonso | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.07 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on my projected version of expected HR per 600 plate appearances (36.1), Alonso has been "unlucky" this year with his 29.8 actual HR/600.
Francisco Lindor | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.40 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.4 mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.
Willson Contreras | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on my projected version of expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.4), Contreras has had bad variance on his side this year with his 20.1 actual HR/600.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Cal Quantrill | OVER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.62 EV
One reason to bet this: The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game seven degrees colder than the average outdoor game on the slate, which is more favorable for pitching.
Chris Paddack | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Chad Fairchild, expected to be behind the plate today, projects as a "hitters umpire."
Logan Allen | UNDER 4.5 K (-165)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.73 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.4 mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Cardinals @ Dodgers | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $8.32 EV
Blue Jays @ Rockies | YRFI (-155)
Projection: 64% chance of RUN with a $7.44 EV
Royals @ Red Sox | YRFI (+115)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $3.22 EV
