Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Jose Soriano emerged from the break with two quality starts, albeit with just 10 strikeouts over those 13 frames. With the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Texas Rangers, the right-hander enjoys a favorable matchup to maintain his momentum. The Rangers' offense sports the sixth lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.
Brayan Bello is credited with eight quality starts, though he deserves another for completing six innings while allowing just three runs after coming in to resume a suspended game last month. The Boston Red Sox wrap up a three-game road set with the Minnesota Twins, giving Bello a solid shot at another quality start as he'll square off with a below average offense that could be playing without Byron Buxton.
Zack Littell is No. 5 on Wednesday's starting pitcher rankings for the Tampa Bay Rays in their road date with the New York Yankees. Part of the favorable listing is due to the Yankees being without slugger Aaron Judge, but even without his power, the club still ranks sixth in the league in home run rate. The long ball is Littell's Achilles heel as he's surrendered a career-high 26 homers in only 128 1/3 innings, though only five have occurred over his last 41 2/3 frames.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani is getting closer, but he's still not ready to be deployed as a conventional starter, limiting his utility as a pitcher in most formats. He completed three frames in each of his prior two outings, logging 46 pitches in his most recent effort. He's likely going to add another inning (around 15 pitches), but that's still not enough to qualify for a possible win when the Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up a series in the Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.88 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: B+ | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.80 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.62 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.15 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
After correcting for park factors, Kyle Freeland has been almost as bad on the road as when the Colorado Rockies are home. The lefty faces the Cleveland Guardians in Progressive Field, so he'll take on a lineup filled with righties and switch-hitters. The main targets are David Fry, Carlos Santana and Angel Martinez with Johnathan Rodriguez, Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio also in the mix.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Pittsburgh Pirates batters vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics Athletics RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .288 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Doyle has a ton of pop (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.2 K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kolby Allard has a pitch-to-contact profile (16th percentile K%), which is great news for Doyle.
Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme flyball hitters like Ward tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.95 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past week, Butler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.5% up to 21.4%.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Ryan Gusto | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.09 EV
One reason to bet this: Gusto's fastball spin rate of 2,427 rpm grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
Joey Wentz | OVER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.29 EV
One reason to bet this: The Royals have three bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per my projections) (John Rave, Tyler Tolbert, Luke Maile).
Adrian Houser | UNDER 3.5 K (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Clint Vondrak, expected to be behind the plate today, grades out as a huge "hitters umpire."
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Cubs @ Brewers | YRFI (+120)
Projection: 47% chance of RUN with a $2.61 EV
Blue Jays @ Orioles | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $0.39 EV
Rockies @ Guardians | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.92 EV
