Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Monday
There is a chance this is Edward Cabrera's last start in a Miami Marlins uniform. He stumbled in his last start before the break, but he got back on track last time out with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings while limiting the San Diego Padres to just one run. Cabrera has a road date with the sputtering St. Louis Cardinals. Over the past month, the Cardinals averaged the fifth fewest runs per game in MLB.
Slade Cecconi is an example of being both lucky and good. His peripherals are improving, in part because he's amid a stretch of facing lesser opponents. After Monday's matchup with the Colorado Rockies, he's slated to face the New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers. Of course, the schedule could change, especially at this time of the season but the 26-year-old righty lines up for a solid second half. It doesn't get much more favorable than a home affair with the Rockies.
The New York Yankees offense isn't nearly as daunting with Aaron Judge on the shelf. Even after acquiring Ryan McMahon, it's a lineup that can be handled by a solid pitcher like Drew Rasmussen. After limiting his workload to preserve innings for most of July, the Tampa Bay Rays will deploy the righty as a traditional starter. Rasmussen's 2.93 ERA is a little more than half a run lower than its estimators, but a mark in the mid-threes is still well under league average.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.84 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.94 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.96 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.53 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.29 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
Last week, 45-year-old Rich Hill limited the potent Chicago Cubs to one run over five innings, but he punched out only one batter while yielding nine hard-hit balls. The veteran lefty's second start for the Kansas City Royals will be at home against the Atlanta Braves. The visitors like to stack their lineup with righty swingers when a lefty is on the hill, rendering Marcell Ozuna, Sean Murphy and Jurickson Profar as batters to stream.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Athletics LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets batters vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals batters vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Luis Robert Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the No. 4 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, via my projections.
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all major league stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the third-lowest average fence height.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% -- 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's fourth-shallowest CF fences today.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Chase Burns | UNDER 6.5 K (-165)
Projection: 77% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.49 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the fifth-hottest temperature (89 degrees) of all games on today's slate.
Troy Melton | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.48 EV
One reason to bet this: The Diamondbacks have six batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Melton in today's game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
Chris Bassitt | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Bassitt's fastball spin rate of 2,148 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile this year among all starters.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Cubs @ Brewers | YRFI (+115)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $3.14 EV
Nationals @ Astros | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $3.04 EV
Phillies @ White Sox | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $0.60 EV
