Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
It's a bit surprising that Eury Perez's rostership remains in the streaming range. Since struggling in his 2025 debut in early June, the 22-year-old righty posted a 2.50 ERA and an 0.89 WHIP with 35 strikeouts in 36 innings. He closes the fantasy week with a road matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Perez faces a patient lineup that doesn't strike out much, but also lacks power. The Brewers sport a below-average wOBA against right-handers.
In his four outings before the All-Star break, Shane Baz recorded a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 30 strikeouts over 27⅓ frames. Perhaps it was due to pitching on extended rest, but Baz struggled in his last start, yielding eight earned runs in four innings to the Chicago White Sox. It will be a challenge but look for Baz to rebound on the road against the Cincinnati Reds. Baz faces a club that is close to league average across the board, but when he's in a groove, Baz can handle any lineup.
Noah Cameron is due for an ERA correction as his 2.61 ERA is over a run below the associated estimators. But his xFIP and SIERA are still below average, so the landing should be soft. The best way to fend off regression is improving skills, and over his past three outings, Cameron recorded a 28.6% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate, both elite levels. Cameron might not match those marks at home against the Cleveland Guardians, but he lines up for another solid outing.
Sunday's best matchups for pitchers
Athletics pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.90 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.94 ERA in this matchup.
Sunday's worst matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.09 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.99 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.96 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Bryce Elder's WHIP over his previous six outings is a bloated 2.34, resulting in a high 8.89 WHIP. Runs have been hard to come by this season in Globe Life Field, but the Texas Rangers batters should enjoy a rare productive game on Sunday. Josh Smith, Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter, Josh Jung and Rowdy Tellez are the chief beneficiaries.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
Avoiding stolen base specialists when playing the Kansas City Royals is a recurring theme in this space. However, over the past month, the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs have done the best job controlling the running game. Those looking to catch up in steals on the last day of this scoring period may want to avoid the Yankees' Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe along with the Phillies' Bryson Stott as the clubs square off in the finale of their weekend set. The Cubs play the White Sox, reducing the appeal of Luis Robert Jr. and Chase Meidroth.
Sunday's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .366 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .361 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .351 wOBA in this matchup.
Sunday's worst matchups for hitters
New York Yankees RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Sunday's top home run prop bets
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $44.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Vargas pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% -- 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLBs fifth-shallowest LF fences.
Dansby Swanson | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.42 EV
One reason to bet this: Swanson's launch angle this year (13.5 degrees) is a significant increase over his 10.2 degrees mark last season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.16 EV
One reason to bet this: The hardest ball Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 120.4 mph (an advanced metric to evaluate power), placing in the 100th percentile.
Sunday's top pitcher prop bets
Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.47 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Woodruff (projected 37.9% FB%) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with four GB hitters in Miami's projected batting order.
Noah Cameron | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.24 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the third-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 90 degrees.
Bryce Elder | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Elder's 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Sunday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Cubs @ White Sox | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $7.10 EV
Padres @ Cardinals | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $4.06 EV
Nationals @ Twins | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $1.56 EV
