Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Saturday
When the Baltimore Orioles traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers, they envisioned the southpaw adding depth to a playoff rotation. Rogers has done his part, but injuries and a disappointing offense have the club looking to next season. With so many teams in the market for pitching, Rogers could be in demand as he's done his part with a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in seven outings, albeit with a pedestrian 35 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. With the Orioles hosting the Colorado Rockies, Rogers is in a great spot to pad his strikeouts while increasing his trade appeal as he faces the lineup with the third-highest road strikeout rate against left-handers.
Cade Horton went into the break in a rut but emerged with a solid home effort against the Boston Red Sox. Next up is a road date with the Chicago White Sox and the offense with the lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill.
The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the few teams with solid starting pitch depth with Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson biding time with Triple-A Louisville while former starters Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Tobias Myers are working out of the bullpen. Many keep expecting Jose Quintana to pitch himself out of a job, but the veteran has pitched just well enough to secure his spot in the rotation. That said, he struggled in his last effort, yielding four runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, albeit with five punchouts and no walks. The lefty is in a favorable spot to rebound with a home affair against the Miami Marlins, sporting the fifth lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
Ranger Suarez is probably just experiencing a hiccup on an otherwise solid season, but he has struggled with control over his last two efforts. In his first start after the break, Suarez issued four free passes against the Los Angeles Angels, the lineup with the second lowest walk rate facing left-handers. On Saturday, Suarez squares off with a New York Yankees team that coaxes walks at the league's highest rate, buoying the second-highest wOBA against southpaw pitching. The safe play is stashing Suarez on reserve when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Bronx.
Saturday's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Miami Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Colorado Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.98 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Cleveland Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.39 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. New York Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.21 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Chicago Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Antonio Senzatela has been equally poor at Coors Field and on the road. The Colorado Rockies continue a series in Camden Yards, putting the spotlight on several of the Baltimore Orioles lefty swinging contingent, including Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Colton Cowser. Right-handers also give Senzatela trouble, also putting Jordan Westburg, Ramon Laureano and Tyler O'Neill in play.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins batters vs. Washington Nationals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles batters vs. Colorado Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays batters vs. Detroit Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Houston Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals RHB vs. Minnesota Twins pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.92 EV
One reason to bet this: The hardest ball hit by Guerrero Jr. this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 120.4 mph (a reliable metric to evaluate power), checking in at the 100th percentile.
Davis Schneider | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.40 EV
One reason to bet this: High humidity has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the third-most humidity on the schedule at 79%.
Alejandro Kirk | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on Statcast metrics, Kirk has been unlucky this year with a 12.4 expected HR per 600 plate appearances.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Andrew Abbott | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Abbott (projected 41.1% FB%) will be a bit disadvantaged in Saturday's game with four GB hitters in Tampa Bay's projected offense.
Ryan Pepiot | UNDER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.83 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the fifth-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Gavin Williams | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.94 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the second-strongest of the day for bats.
Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.40 EV
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers | YRFI (+130)
Projection: 44% chance of RUN with a $1.55 EV
