Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
Frankie Montas started four games before the break, with the last being his top effort, fanning five with no walks in five innings against the Kansas City Royals. His first start since play resumed is a favorable home date with the New York Mets hosting the Los Angeles Angels. Montas fanned a respectable 17 in 18 2/3 innings and has a chance to build on that, facing the lineup with the second highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.
Edward Cabrera experienced elbow discomfort in his final start before the break. In the 11 outings, Cabrera recorded a 2.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with 60 punchouts in 59 2/3 innings. Last time, the Miami Marlins righty yielded four runs in four frames, albeit with six strikeouts and no walks. He was able to throw twice over the break and has been cleared to take the hill against the San Diego Padres in South Beach. The Padres don't fan much, but they walk and hit homers at a below average clip, so Cabrera should rebound and start a new string of solid efforts.
You know the deal; you can't just make a bad outing disappear. However, selectively overlook Chase Burns disaster against the Boston Red Sox in his second career start and he posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his other three outings, with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 15 2/3 frames. Burns will experience the standard ups and downs of a young hurler, but not many have his upside. He's worth the risk with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Washington Nationals, sporting the seventh lowest wOBA versus right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Mitch Keller is the best 3-10 pitcher in the league. His 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP deserve a better fate. As luck would have it, Keller's first opponent after the break is the Detroit Tigers, who enjoy the best record in the league entering Monday's action. His 18.7% strikeout rate is below average, but the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has compiled at least six stanzas in 15 of his 20 efforts. Even so, with a pedestrian strikeout total and a low chance of winning, it's best to avoid Keller in this early week matchup. There will be other chances to capture pitching points.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.91 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.00 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.60 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: A+ | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.47 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.37 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
Sometimes low-hanging fruit is the sweetest. The Colorado Rockies are sending Bradley Blalock to the Coors Field hill. The righty has yielded 24 earned runs and 33 hits in only 21 2/3 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals open the week with a road series in Denver, rendering Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera as must-adds for this juicy matchup.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .376 wOBA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .376 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .351 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Athletics RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .259 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Christopher Morel | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Morel has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping last year's 10.3% rate to 15.5% this season.
Paul Goldschmidt | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.32 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Rogers Centre as the third-best park in the game for righty home runs.
Alec Burleson | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.86 EV
One reason to bet this: Burleson has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.9% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past week's worth of games.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.53 EV
One reason to bet this: With six bats of opposing handedness in the projected batting order, Misiorowski will be at a disadvantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
Eduardo Rodriguez | OVER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.46 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodriguez has averaged 91.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 75th percentile.
Chase Burns | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.84 EV
One reason to bet this: The Nationals have six batters in their projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Burns today.
