Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Andrew Heaney's strikeout rate is pacing to be a career low. One game isn't enough to turn things around, but facing the Chicago White Sox and the league's third lowest strikeout rate facing left-handers should get the Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw headed in the right direction.
Janson Junk is riding a three-game quality start streak. He's not missing many bats, but he's not walking many and keeping the ball in the yard. With the Miami Marlins hosting the Kansas City Royals, Junk is in a great spot to pick up where he left off before the break. The Royals don't fan much, but they don't coax many walks and lack power, feeding into Junk's fortes.
Assuming Clayton Kershaw isn't mic'd up like he was at the All-Star game, broadcasting what he's about to throw to the Milwaukee Brewers batters, the veteran lefty should produce another solid effort. He registered a quality start in three of his five outings heading into the break, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over those 30 innings. Kershaw fanned only 20, but going deep into the games with run support provided by the potent Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is a solid recipe for streaming.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.41 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.66 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.93 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.89 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.83 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Pirates' batters, especially the left-handers, are in a rare favorable spot with Aaron Civale taking the hill in PNC Park. The journeyman righty posted a 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP after being acquired by the White Sox. He fanned just 17 with a generous 15 walks over those 30 2/3 frames. Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz are the chief targets.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
It's the last scoring day of the extended period so it may be necessary to chase categories in rotisserie scoring. Those needing steals should be wary of Miami Marlins' Xavier Edwards, Dane Myers and Otto Lopez, despite the trio each swiping at least 10 bags this season. They'll have to contend with the Kansas City Royals, by far the best at controlling the running game.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Twins batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .372 wOBA in this matchup.
Rockies LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .367 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .355 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .246 wOBA in this matchup.
Cubs batters vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .262 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: A | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .263 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Jake Bauers | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.80 EV
One reason to bet this: The fence height at Dodger Stadium is the second-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.
Addison Barger | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.40 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past two weeks, Barger's exit velocity on fly balls has seen a big rise, from 96.6 mph over the course of the season to 105.1 mph.
Andrew Vaughn | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Last year, Vaughn had an average launch angle of 11.8 degrees on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has increased to 15.6 degrees.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Bryan Woo | OVER 6.5 K (+120)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.89 EV
One reason to bet this: Cal Raleigh, the Mariners' expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to my projections.
Jake Latz | UNDER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Alfonso Marquez grades out as a huge hitters umpire and is expected to be umping today.
Ranger Suarez | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.77 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the second-best hitting conditions on the schedule today.
