Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Friday
The All-Star break came at a good time for the Tampa Bay Rays as they dropped a four-game series to the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park. Taj Bradley is tasked with getting the club back on track in a home date with the Baltimore Orioles. It's been an uneven season for the righty, but he showed signs of finding a groove heading into the break, especially with respect to strikeouts. He faces an Orioles team that fans the fourth most in the league with a right-hander on the hill.
While it's clearly too early to start tracking the Detroit Tigers magic number, they open the post-break festivities with the largest divisional lead as they're a comfortable 11.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers are in a good place to extend it with a series in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. Reese Olson is still working his way back after missing over six weeks with right index finger inflammation. This is a favorable spot to return to form, facing a Rangers offense with the sixth lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill.
Jonathan Cannon's sophomore season has been a mild disappointment, especially considering that the Chicago White Sox are developing a reputation for developing young pitching. A high .298 BABIP hasn't helped, but he's also walking a few more batters. He's in a strong spot to come out of the break on a high note facing the Pittsburgh Pirates and the second lowest wOBA versus right-handers. The long ball was an issue for Cannon, and the Pirates sport the lowest home run rate facing righties.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.56 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.70 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.65 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.60 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.43 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
The Minnesota Twins open the proverbial second half in Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies have announced that LHP Kyle Freeland will start Friday, putting the spotlight on the Twins right contingent. Only Byron Buxton is rostered in at least half of ESPN leagues, and he's available in 17%, so it's worth investigating. Carlos Correa, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, Ty France and Royce Lewis are all in play.
Patrick Corbin entered the break with three straight quality starts, but with a pedestrian 18.8% strikeout rate, he's vulnerable to potent lineups, like the Tigers. Righty swingers Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler and Javier Baez all enjoy the platoon edge, as does switch-hitter Wenceel Perez.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .372 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .365 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Andrew Vaughn | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Our projection system estimates Vaughn's true offensive ability to be a .331 wOBA, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .071 difference between that mark and his actual .260 wOBA.
Ivan Herrera | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Herrera has paced 25.5 expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 84th percentile for power according to my projections.
Matt Olson | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.19 EV
One reason to bet this: Olson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year. Compare his 93.5-mph average to last years 91.3-mph EV.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Lucas Giolito | OVER 5.5 K (+120)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.49 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 1.17 disparity between Giolito's 7.96 K/9 and his 9.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year as it relates to strikeouts. He figures to "positively regress" in future games.
Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 6.5 K (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.71 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks). The weather forecast predicts the fourth-hottest weather on the schedule today for this game, at 83 degrees.
Slade Cecconi | OVER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.50 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4 mph in this matchup, the strongest of the day for pitchers.
