Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
David Peterson's past two outings have been a struggle, but they come following a run of seven straight quality starts. The lefty's last three efforts have been on the road, but Thursday he's back home for a date with the Milwaukee Brewers. With a 56% ground-ball rate and Citi Field at his back, Peterson is a streamer for all home games, regardless of the opponent.
Dustin May is exhibiting the standard pattern after returning from Tommy John surgery, with his velocity at the pre-surgery level (and ticking up lately) but control and command slower to come around. Even so, the righty is in play almost any time the Los Angeles Dodgers are at home and definitely when facing subpar offenses like the Chicago White Sox, who sport the lowest wOBA in the league with a right-hander on the hill.
After three straight quality starts and 28 strikeouts over those 21 2/3 frames, Jose Soriano experienced a hiccup in his last effort, surrendering eight runs in four stanzas to the Washington Nationals in Anaheim. With the Los Angeles Angels visiting the Atlanta Braves, look for Soriano to get back on track against an underperforming offense that's been in a rut for a month.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: A | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.83 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.83 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.74 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Bryce Elder can be partially excused for his last outing where he gave up nine earned runs in just two frames. The Braves righty warmed up, then endured a two-hour rain delay before heating up again. However, Elder also surrendered nine runs in 8 2/3 innings over his prior two starts. The Angels sport the fourth-highest home run rate in the league, so don't expect them to respect Elder when they face off in Truist Park. Mike Trout is available on only 12% of ESPN leagues, so it's worth checking on every other Angels batter to fortify a Thursday lineup with only 10 games.
Hitters to avoid on Thursday
A typical Thursday ploy in category leagues (head-to-head or rotisserie) is streaming stolen base specialists. The Seattle Mariners don't always start Dylan Moore, but when they do, he's a candidate for a swipe or two. However, with the Mariners entertaining the Kansas City Royals, Moore's speed game is mitigated by the best team at controlling the running game.
The Mets are next best at throwing out runners attempting to steal. They host the Brewers, where Mets starter David Peterson will enjoy the platoon edge on Christian Yelich and Brice Turang. With their running curtailed, the safe play is avoiding the Brewers pair.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Astros pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .371 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .370 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .345 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Kansas City Royals batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .265 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .289 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Josh Bell | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last seven days, Bell's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his season-long rate of 11.1% up to 16.7%.
Ozzie Albies | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.43 EV
One reason to bet this: In the last week's worth of games, Albies' 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his season-long rate of 15.6%.
Austin Wells | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 10th-shallowest.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Brandon Walter | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.37 EV
One reason to bet this: With nine hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walter lacks the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Robbie Ray | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.48 EV
One reason to bet this: The Arizona Diamondbacks have eight hitters in their projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Ray in today's game.
Aaron Civale | UNDER 3.5 K (+110)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Civale wasn't "on" when it came to striking hitters out in his last start, posting just two Ks.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Astros @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 61% chance of RUN with a $3.73 EV
Royals @ Mariners | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.33 EV
