Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Monday
Erick Fedde is the slate's top-ranked streamer. He may not have the allure of more dominant hurlers, but Fedde generally doesn't hurt himself with walks and he keeps the ball in the yard, two traits conducive to points-league scoring. The lack of strikeouts renders Fedde vulnerable to potent lineups, as shown by the Chicago Cubs plating seven in 3 1/3 innings in his last start. Fedde is in a great spot for a rebound, facing a Pittsburgh Pirates offense with the second lowest wOBA in the league versus right-handers.
Michael Wacha is like Fedde in that he's not dominant but run prevention over a high total of innings is recognized by points-league scoring. Fedde's matchup is better but with the Kansas City Royals facing the Seattle Mariners in pitcher-friendly T Mobile Park, Wacha is in a favorable setup. Although not dominant, Wacha misses more bats than Fedde and is on a strikeout surge with 30 punchouts over his prior 30 1/3 innings.
In contrast, the Athletics Jacob Lopez is emerging as a high strikeout starter, capable of piling up points. He fanned 38 over his previous 27 1/3 frames, spanning five starts, and posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP during this stretch. Next up is a road date with the Tampa Bay Rays. Lopez shouldn't be vexed by the hitter-friendly nature of the venue since his team also plays in a generous minor league park. The Rays are below average facing lefties, in part due to two of their best hitters, Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe being lefty swingers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.91 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.17 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.95 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.93 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
The Baltimore Orioles bats came alive over the weekend and even though they'll be on the road in Arlington against the Texas Rangers, facing southpaw Patrick Corbin benefits the Orioles' right-handed contingent. Jordan Westburg has been sidelined with a jammed finger, but if he's back in the lineup, he's in play. If not, Ramon Urias will likely handle the hot corner and bat second. Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez and Coby Mayo also enjoy the platoon edge.
Hitters to avoid on Monday
Even though Chase Burns fanned eight New York Yankees over five stanzas in his major league debut, he's risky to stream when the Cincinnati Reds visit Fenway Park. That said, it's a tenuous proposition to trust Boston Red Sox batters, especially with their proclivity to strike out.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Kansas City Royals batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% -- 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero's 15.3 Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile this year.
Ben Rice | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Rice has been hot of late, cruising to a .347 wOBA over the past week.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Chase Burns | UNDER 6.5 K (-165)
Projection: 77% chance of this bet hitting, with a $39.18 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Fenway Park as the worst venue in the majors for strikeouts.
Max Scherzer | OVER 5.5 K (-100)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.26 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 7 park in the majors for boosting strikeouts, according to my projections, is Rogers Centre.
Jacob Lopez | UNDER 4.5 K (+130)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Lopez and his 39.1 underlying GB% (via my projections) finds himself in a hard position in today's game given the batting profile of the expected opposing lineup.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Yankees @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $1.03 EV
Royals @ Mariners | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.99 EV
Giants @ D-Backs | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.62 EV
