Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Chad Patrick has struggled lately, but overall, he's been one of the top surprises of the first half, keeping the Milwaukee Brewers within striking distance of the Chicago Cubs, along with being in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase. Patrick's command and control has been off for three starts, over which he posted a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He missed ample bats over that span, fanning 22 in 15 frames, but he also walked six while yielding four homers. A home date with the Colorado Rockies should be the ideal elixir.
Mitchell Parker opened the season with a 1.39 ERA and .93 WHIP over five starts. But he registered a 7.99 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his next seven efforts. He appeared on the verge of losing his spot in the Washington Nationals rotation. However, with three quality starts in his last four efforts, Parker is back on track. Next up is a road date with the Los Angeles Angels and the second highest strikeout rate facing right-handers.
The season is just over the halfway point and the Houston Astros remain a below average offense. A better second half from Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz is likely, but especially with Yordan Alvarez still recovering from a fractured hand, the lineup is not to be feared. This explains why Jameson Taillon is the top ranked streamer on Sunday's slate. The Chicago Cubs righty is better for points leagues as he generally goes deep into the game and the potent Cubs offense keeps him in play for a win.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Kris Bubic merits an active roster spot for most matchups, but there are a handful of opposing teams for which he should be benched. For example, recently, the powerful New York Yankees tallied five runs in 4 1/3 innings against. With the Kansas City Royals hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers, the safe play is avoiding Bubic, unless you're behind and need to take the chance on the last day of this head-to-head scoring period.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Athletics pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.49 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.25 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.16 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
Jack Kochanowicz yielded four runs in five of his last seven outings, leading to a 6.68 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in that span. Angels Stadium is a latently beneficial venue for left-handed batters. With the Washington Nationals visiting the Los Angeles Angels, Nathaniel Lowe, Luis Garcia and Josh Bell are the primary streaming candidates.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: A | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .275 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .291 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Coby Mayo | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Coby Mayo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% -- 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the leagues fourth-shallowest center field fences in todays game.
Gary Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Gary Sanchez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last years 90-mph figure.
Aaron Judge | OVER 0.5 HR (+220)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.52 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the third-highest level of the day at 89 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense and a reduction in strikeouts.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Mitchell Parker | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.35 EV
One reason to bet this: It is likely that we will see a "hitters umpire" (Mark Ripperger) behind the plate in this game.
Jonathan Cannon | UNDER 3.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.44 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense and fewer strikeouts, and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 91 degrees.
Eric Lauer | UNDER 2.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.71 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all the teams in action today, the fourth-strongest infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Brewers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $1.19 EV
Phillies @ Braves | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $0.38 EV
Phillies @ Braves | YRFI (+110)
Projection: 48% chance of RUN with a $0.51 EV
