Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

• Michael Soroka's 5.06 ERA is well over a run too high according to the associated 3.72 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA. He has benefited from a .258 BABIP but has been victimized by a 16.9% home run per fly ball level and a 69.2% left-on-base mark. Soroka's 26.5% strikeout rate is pacing towards a career best, and he has a chance to keep it going when the Washington Nationals visit the Los Angeles Angels, and the offense striking out at the second-highest clip in MLB facing right-handers.

• The Tampa Bay Rays are encouraging their pitchers to work higher in the zone and to throw inside more often. There have been varying results with Zack Littell's success, but it comes with a couple of yellow flags. Ten of his 16 outings have been quality starts, but they're buoyed by a .258 BABIP and 87.4% left-on-base mark. At some points, Littell's low 16.9% strikeout rate will be an issue, but walking hitters just 2.8% of the time helps. Homers have been a problem, with a surprisingly high 14 of 22 long balls allowed coming on the road. Littell is risky against potent lineups, but on Saturday he draws the Baltimore Orioles on the road. The Orioles are one of the league's first-half disappointments with a below-average wOBA and above-average strikeout rate, and both have been worsening over the past month.

• Clarke Schmidt's rostership is a tad over the informal 50% plateau, but considering he's the top-ranked pitcher on Saturday's docket, it's worth checking his availability. The back end of the New York Yankees' rotation is in flux, but Schmidt gives the club a big three, joining Max Fried and Carlos Rodon as frontliners. Four of Schmidt's last five efforts have been quality starts, all dour of those being scoreless outings. On Saturday, Schmidt faces the Athletics, whose main asset is home runs. However, Schmidt has surrendered only six dingers in 69 2/3 frames, with only one ball leaving the yard over his previous 43 stanzas.

• Slade Cecconi merits streaming consideration when the Cleveland Guardians host the St. Louis Cardinals. The righty seemingly solved early season gopheritis and is sporting a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last four starts while fanning 20 in 22 frames and allowing just one homer.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

• This time last season, Bailey Ober was amid an 11-game stretch, dropping his ERA from 5.13 to 3.54. Currently, his 4.90 ERA is close to last season's mark before that hot streak. The difference is that last year the underlying metrics foretold improvement, whereas this season they're concerning. Ober's 18.3% strikeout rate is by far a career low. Already a fly-ball pitcher, Ober is inducing even fewer ground balls which, in concert with the lack of strikeouts, has bloated his home run rate. Ober can turn things around, but with a road date facing the Detroit Tigers, the safe play is to look elsewhere.

Saturday's best matchups for pitchers

Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Colorado Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.61 ERA in this matchup.

New York Yankees pitchers vs. Athletics Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.75 ERA in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Washington Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.00 ERA in this matchup.

Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers

Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.56 ERA in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Baltimore Orioles hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.31 ERA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. San Diego Padres hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.12 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

• Home or away doesn't matter; Antonio Senzatela is struggling. With the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Colorado Rockies, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz and Caleb Durbin all line up for a productive afternoon.

Saturday's best matchups for hitters

Cincinnati Reds batters vs. San Diego Padres pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. New York Mets pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Toronto Blue Jays pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .344 wOBA in this matchup.

Saturday's worst matchups for hitters

Texas Rangers RHB vs. Seattle Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .256 wOBA in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Texas Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Atlanta Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Saturday's top home run prop bets

Gary Sanchez | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $46.77 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 90 degrees.

Ramon Laureano | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Oriole Park at Camden Yards is projected as the sixth-best stadium in baseball for right-handed home runs.

Matt Wallner | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.54 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme groundball hitters like Wallner tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Casey Mize.

Saturday's top pitcher prop bets

Kumar Rocker | UNDER 2.5 ER (-135)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.48 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field's centerfield fences are the seventh-deepest in MLB.

Michael Soroka | UNDER 2.5 ER (-130)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.58 EV
One reason to bet this: Out of all SPs, Mike Soroka's fastball spin rate of 2536 rpm is in the 94th percentile this year.

Robbie Ray | UNDER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the No. 25 park in MLB for strikeouts.

Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rockies @ Brewers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $5.42 EV

Giants @ White Sox | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 49% chance of RUN with a $1.41 EV

Padres @ Reds | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $0.96 EV