Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Grant Holmes' transition to full-time starter is one of the few high points of the Atlanta Braves first half. He recorded eight quality starts with four occurring in his previous eight outings. Over this span, Holmes ERA is 2.96 with a 1.20 WHIP, featuring 57 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings. A slightly low .286 BABIP has helped rescue a high 10.1% walk rate in this span. On Thursday, Holmes starts in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against a New York Mets lineup entering Wednesday's action with 10 losses in their prior 11 contests. They averaged just 3.1 runs per game over that span, which included an 11-run outburst in their only win.
Hayden Birdsong is in a rut, but with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Miami Marlins, the 23-year-old right-hander is in a good spot to get back on track. Over his previous three outings, Birdsong posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Fanning 15 in 14 2/3 innings is encouraging, but eight walks in that span, combined with an elevated .302 BABIP generated too much traffic. The Marlins are one of the least patient teams in the league.
Heading into his last outing, Emerson Hancock was on a roll, sporting a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five starts, covering 29 frames. Strikeouts were low with just 20, but Hancock walked just nine while yielding only three homers. Last time, even though he punched out five in four innings, the Chicago Cubs rocked Hancock for eight runs on three homers. Thursday's follow-up is on the road against the Minnesota Twins, a steep downgrade from the potent Cubs.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Only five of Thursday's 22 probable starters are rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues and are all ranked in the top six of today's card. It's rare to avoid the top-ranked option, but Shota Imanaga will be making his first start since early May as he's been on the IL recovering from a strained hamstring. He tossed 72 pitches in his final rehab effort, but the Chicago Cubs may manage his pitch count on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: F | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: B | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.15 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.94 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.77 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.28 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Andre Pallante doesn't miss many bats with 58 punchouts in 82 1/3 innings. He has six quality starts in 15 outings so he can be effective, but he's vulnerable against an offense like the Cubs. Coors Field remains the top destination for bats on a slate with only nine games, but streaming some Cubs for the road date with Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals can also pay dividends. Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Matt Shaw are the primary targets.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .370 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .377 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Philadelphia Phillies batters vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .292 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .297 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Nick Kurtz | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.49 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last 14 days, Kurtz has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls to 25.1 degrees, compared to his season-long mark of 15.1 degrees.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has had some very poor HR luck this year. His 17.7 HR/600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to my projected expected HR/600 of 29.9.
Austin Wynns | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Wynns is projected to bat fourth in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Hayden Birdsong | UNDER 5.5 K (-135)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Birdsong's fastball velocity has dropped to 94.7 mph compared to where it was last season (95.7 mph).
Clayton Kershaw | UNDER 4.5 K (-145)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.92 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last outing, Kershaw struggled when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post two Ks.
Tanner Bibee | OVER 2.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.25 EV
One reason to bet this: The Toronto Blue Jays have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 16-degree mark is third-highest in the league this year.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-160)
Projection: 66% chance of RUN with a $12.82 EV
Cubs @ Cardinals | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 49% chance of NO RUN with a $1.07 EV
